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Jannik Sinner's absence benefits Carlos Alcaraz: What to expect from the US Open champion after his long injury layoff
Jannik Sinner is out, but is it premature to call Carlos Alcaraz the US Open favourite after four months away?
Carlos Alcaraz is finally back. After four months on the sidelines with a right wrist injury sustained during his Barcelona Open campaign, the Spaniard confirmed on Thursday that he will return at the US Open, where he will defend the title he won last year. The injury had forced him to miss both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, keeping him away from Grand Slam action since his Australian Open triumph in January.
However, the final Grand Slam of the season will be without world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, who withdrew last week because of a right knee injury that had already forced him to skip the Montreal and Cincinnati hard-court events. It is the first time Sinner has pulled out of a Grand Slam.
Sinner made the most of Alcaraz’s absence earlier in the season, winning five Masters 1000 titles before successfully defending his Wimbledon crown. His withdrawal has now opened up the US Open field, with Alcaraz among the players to benefit most from the absence of his biggest rival.
The Spaniard also gets a favourable boost from the seeding situation. With Sinner out, Alcaraz moves up to the No. 2 seed, meaning he will be kept apart from top seed Alexander Zverev until the final. That gives him a potentially clearer route through the draw, although the absence of a confirmed draw means the full picture is still to emerge.
Yet the bigger question remains: without Sinner, is Alcaraz automatically the overwhelming favourite?
For everything Alcaraz has achieved in his young career, the question is understandable. But asking him to dominate New York immediately after four months away could be premature. This will be his first competitive tournament since April 14, when he played one match in Barcelona before withdrawing with a wrist problem.
Alcaraz has already entered the elite bracket of tennis history. His Australian Open triumph this year completed his career Grand Slam at the age of 22, making him the youngest man to achieve the feat, and took his haul to seven major titles.
And there is precedent for a great player returning from a long layoff and immediately producing something extraordinary. Rafael Nadal remains perhaps the most striking example. In 2022, despite serious concerns over his chronic foot problem, he returned to win the Australian Open and Roland Garros before reaching the Wimbledon semi-finals. In 2013, after nearly a year away, he returned to reach the Australian Open final and then won the remaining three major tournaments he played that season.
That was Nadal. Alcaraz, for now, remains in unexplored territory.
He has never been away from the tour for this long, nor has he had to return from an injury that kept him out of two Grand Slam tournaments in succession. But there are reasons for optimism. In 2025, he missed Madrid with a right adductor issue and hamstring discomfort, only to return in time to win the Rome Masters and Roland Garros.
This time, however, the challenge is different. He is returning directly to a Grand Slam, without a competitive match to test the wrist under the pressure of a best-of-five contest.
The wider draw may give him some comfort. Sinner is gone. Zverev has had an inconsistent North American hard-court swing, while Novak Djokovic has played only once since Wimbledon and has spoken about dealing with health issues. None of that guarantees Alcaraz anything, but it does make the road look considerably more open than it did a few weeks ago.
And perhaps that is the most intriguing part of Alcaraz’s return. The US Open has suddenly gone from being a tournament he needed to defend to one where he has a genuine opportunity to seize control of the season.
But before he can think about another title, he has to answer a much simpler question: what does Carlos Alcaraz look like after four months away?
New York will provide the answer.
