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More than title at stake at US Open
At the US Open, Aryna Sabalenka could win a third title or lose her No.1 ranking, with Rybakina, Swiatek, and others vying for top spots.
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Mumbai: There are three possible outcomes from the women’s singles draw at the US Open.
Aryna Sabalenka could become the first player since Serena Williams in 2014 to complete a hat-trick of titles in New York. The other option is that Sabalenka will be dethroned of the world No.1 spot she has held for nearly 100 consecutive weeks.
Or both – Sabalenka could win and yet still lose her spot at the top of the WTA rankings.
The way the 2026 calendar year started, these are unexpected circumstances that have led to the build-up of the season’s last Grand Slam. And in the coming fortnight at the Billie Jean King Tennis Centre in Flushing Meadows, the culmination of these twists and turns will make for intriguing storylines.
At the start of the year, Sabalenka won 11 matches on the trot. The streak ended when she lost the Australian Open final to a resurgent Elena Rybakina, then ranked No.6 in the world. By the time the US Open ends and the rankings are updated on September 14, Rybakina may just be the new world No.1.
The Kazakh, who won Wimbledon in 2022, went on to win the clay title at the WTA 500 event in Stuttgart, while also reaching finals at Indian Wells and recently in Toronto. If the 27-year-old reaches the semi-final at the US Open, she will be the new World No.1 regardless of who wins the title.
But there is some fitness concern she carries with her to New York, having being forced to withdraw from her quarter-final at the Cincinnati Masters due to an ankle injury. And to get to the semi-final, she may have to face six-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek in the quarter-final, should they both reach that far.
Swiatek has also had an upswing in form, having ended her 11-month title drought with the triumph at the Canadian Masters (beating Rybakina in the final).
The Polish star, who has been world No.1 for 125 weeks over two stints, is the eighth seed in New York.
The permutations and combinations ahead of the US Open are such, that there are four players who could walk away with the world No.1 rank at the end of the Slam. World No.3 Jessica Pegula, one of the most consistent players in the top 10 over the past few years, and fellow American Coco Gauff, the world No.4 and former US Open winner who won the title in Cincinnati last week, are also in contention. They are in opposite halves of the draw, meaning they could face each other in the final.
For both the American players though, they would need to win the title with Rybakina exiting the event before the semi-final to take the top rank. A win for either of them would also mean women’s tennis will go a second consecutive season with four different winners in each of the four Slams.
While Rybakina took the crown in Australia, 19-year-old Mirra Andreeva, who has been destined for big things in the sport, finally made her mark by winning the French Open in June. A month later, in an all-Czech final, 21-year-old Linda Noskova beat Karolina Muchova at Wimbledon.
And then, in the vast list of contenders, there is Sabalenka.
“I love having the target on my back,” she had said during Cincinnati.
The target may have become bigger as the year went on and her form dipped, but in her last chance for a Major title this year, the powerful striker from Belarus simply cannot be written off.
The storylines will begin to play out from Sunday.
