COP29: NCQG talks spillover as no breakthrough in agreement yet

Experts feel that countries will need to take a political call on the quantum of New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG)

The new COP29 Presidency’s text will be released on Saturday after developing countries rejected the text on Friday evening. However, the sense among parties is such that a deal remains far away as some delegations have begun extending their stay in Baku.

The matter is being discussed at the highest level especially among developed nations. (COP29 | Official X account)

Experts feel that countries will need to take a political call on the quantum of New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG).

The matter is being discussed at the highest level especially among developed nations, observers said, since they will have to contribute to it.

Negotiations took place all of Friday night following which options were discussed with the Azerbaijan Presidency which is drafting the text at present.

“The matter is now in the capitals of developed countries. They have to see how the NCQG quantum can be raised,” said an observer.

But a failure in talks could put negotiations on climate ambition also at risk. The agenda at COP30 in Brazil is climate action.

During G20 on November 19, President Lula invited everyone to make the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference the “turnaround COP” next year.

“We cannot postpone to Belém the task of Baku.

“COP30 will be our last chance to avoid an irreversible rupture in the climate system,” he said.

Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035 are due by February 2025 and these NDCs must lay out their national decarbonisation and resilience plans by 2035.

“We are proposing $300bn at least from developed countries by 2030 and USD390 billion by 2035… as a form of kickstarting the process of achieving $1.3 trillion per year by 2030. The USA may leave the Paris Agreement. It increases our responsibility for COP30 also because a text like this will only result in further damage for humanity and the planet” the Brazil environment minister Marina Silva said.

A joint statement by Amar Bhattacharya, Vera Songwe and Nicholas Stern, Co-Chairs of the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance had said on Friday, “The text also calls on developed countries to increase their financial support for developing countries to $250 billion per year by 2035. This figure is too low and not consistent with delivery of the Paris Agreement.”

“Our analysis shows that the NCQG, based on the components that it covers, should commit developed countries to provide at least $300 billion per year by 2030, and $390 billion per year by 2035. We believe that these targets are feasible and will require stepped up direct bilateral finance from developed countries, much higher ambition on the part of the multilateral development banks and improved private finance mobilisation”, they said.

The overall goal they maintained should be USD 1.3 trillion by 2035.

The Baku deal should deliver a commitment to mobilise USD 1 trillion per year by 2030 in external finance from all sources for the investments necessary by emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs) other than China to be able to meet Paris Agreement goals.

It should mobilise about $1.3 trillion by 2035, according to a new report published by the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance co-chaired by economists Amar Bhattacharya, Vera Songwe and Nicholas Stern had said on November 14.

Any shortfall in investment before 2030 will place added pressure on the years that follow, creating a steeper and potentially more costly path to climate stability.

HT reported on Saturday that the COP29 climate summit was extended by a day after developing nations reacted with fury to developed countries’ proposal of $250 billion annual climate finance by 2035, calling it “a slap in the face” and far below their demand of $1.3 trillion.

The first concrete numbers to emerge in the two-week negotiations came in Friday’s draft from the COP29 Presidency, which not only set a dramatically lower funding target, but also controversially modified language around developed nations’ obligations, suggesting they would merely “take the lead” rather than fully provide climate finance.

The extended climate talks lay bare the deep inequities in the multilateral process. The latest draft ignores the urgent needs of developing countries and the voices of climate justice advocates.

“The COP29 Presidency must ensure an inclusive and transparent process that centers those on the frontlines of the crisis. Developed countries must commit trillions, not empty promises—anything less makes them squarely responsible for the failure of these talks and the betrayal of billions across the globe,” said Harjeet Singh, climate activist and global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.

Civil society organisations representing millions of people across the world have issued letters to developed countries and the G77+China on Friday night.

Addressed to the G77+China, and hand-delivered to Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Uganda to the United Nations, Adonia Ayebare, at the COP29 conference centre, the letter states that “the collective civil society constituencies and members present at COP29, and with broader global civil society behind us, wholeheartedly support you in rejecting the current negotiating text” regarding the climate finance goal.

The letter from 335 organisations went on to state how “no deal in Baku is better than a bad deal, and this is a very, very bad deal because of the intransigence of developed countries.”