Democratic Party affiliations highest since 2012, GOP facing smallest share since 2018: Poll

The GOP is facing its smallest share of identifiers since 2018 and its largest deficit to Democrats on party identification and leaning in nearly nine years, Gallup said.

An average of 49 per cent number of Americans identified with the Democratic Party or the independents who lean toward the Democratic Party in contrast to 40 per cent who identified with the Republicans throughout the first quarter of 2021, as per the Gallup poll. The nine-percentage point difference is the largest since the fourth quarter of 2012 and in recent years, the Democratic advantages have been between four and six percentage points, according to the poll.

Gallup routinely measures party identification of the US adults and the political leanings of the independents. (AFP representative image)

While the rise in the Democratic Party affiliation after the victory of the party candidate in the presidential election is not unprecedented, the GOP is facing its smallest share of identifiers since 2018 and its largest deficit to Democrats on party identification and leaning in nearly nine years, Gallup said.

The poll figures come as President Joe Biden was inaugurated after facing violent resistance on January 6 when the rioters attempted to disrupt ‘the certification of his victory in the 2020 election'. The first quarter also witnessed a steady decline in the number of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases, deaths, expansion of vaccination program and the $1.9 trillion relief package.

Gallup routinely measures party identification of the US adults and the political leanings of the independents. “In the first quarter, 30% of Americans identified as Democrats and 19% were Democratic-leaning independents, while 25% were Republican identifiers and 15% Republican-leaning independents. The vast majority of the remaining 11% were independents with no partisan leanings,” as per the poll.

The poll also said the level of independent identification is among the highest against any quarter since 1988. However, increased independent identification mostly comes at the cost of the Republican party.

The report noted that the GOP enjoyed advantages for incumbent Republican presidents George H.W. Bush following the 1991 US victory in the Gulf War, and George W. Bush in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks.

“The GOP's hopes of regaining control of the House and Senate it lost in the past two federal election cycles may also depend on how well the party appeals to independent voters, the largest bloc in the US., something the Republican Party struggled to do during the Trump administration,” the Gallup report said.