Europe’s exports to the U.S. fell for the second consecutive month in May after a first-quarter boom, but remained higher than a year earlier, a sign of resilience that will be tested as higher tariffs look set to become a settled feature of trans-Atlantic trade.
Exports to the U.S. from the EU edged down to €46.2 billion in May.
Exports to the U.S. from the European Union edged down to 46.2 billion euros, or around $53.6 billion, in May from 47.6 billion euros a month earlier, statistics agency Eurostat said Wednesday. Overall exports fell 0.8%, with the EU’s overall trade surplus rising to 13.4 billion euros.
The EU’s exports to the U.S. fell sharply in April after reaching a record high in March, when American importers stockpiled goods ahead of the Trump administration’s impending tariff announcements.
The U.S. and EU have been in talks over a trade agreement for months. President Trump in May threatened to jack up so-called reciprocal tariffs on EU goods of 50%, blaming the slow progress of trade talks, before backing down to allow negotiations to continue.
Then Trump on Saturday said he would raise tariffs on most goods from the EU to 30% on Aug. 1. Goods are currently subject to a 10% baseline tariff, with car-parts and some metals subject to higher taxes.
A 30% levy would strike at the core of Germany’s export economy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz told German broadcaster ARD on Sunday.
The U.S. last year overtook China as Germany’s main trade partner, accounting for more than 250 billion euros in both exports and imports. Now trade barriers have seen Chinese goods being redirected to Europe and away from the American market. China’s exports to the EU rose 7.6% on year in June, but exports to the U.S. sank 16%, according to official data published Monday.
The EU’s trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said Monday that 30% tariffs would make it almost impossible to continue the current level of trade between the bloc and the U.S.
“Practically it prohibits trade,” he told reporters. “Trading as we know it will not continue, with huge negative effects on both sides of the Atlantic.”
Trump’s tariff threats are already rattling some European manufacturers. ASML Holding, the Dutch chip-making equipment supplier and one of Europe’s largest companies by market cap, said it could no longer guarantee growth in 2026 amid the uncertainty. Shares in Amsterdam sank in Wednesday morning trading.
The U.S.-EU relationship accounts for about 30% of global goods trade, according to the European Council. The EU has threatened tariffs on 72 billion euros of U.S. goods including cars, planes and whiskey, should talks collapse.
The uncertainty has already prompted the European Central Bank to publish forecasts that say the eurozone economy would grow significantly slower in a scenario in which the U.S. imposed even higher tariffs and the EU retaliated. Demand for Europe’s goods is also being damped by the appreciation of the euro against the dollar, which makes products more expensive for importers.
Much of Europe’s economic growth in the early part of the year came from front-loading of exports. Some of that continues: eurozone non-durable goods production, which includes pharmaceuticals, rose in May at its fastest pace since records began in 1991.
But Trump on Tuesday floated tariffs by the end of July on pharmaceuticals, which have yet to be subject to levies. The threat is particularly acute in some nations. Ireland’s hosting of major medicine manufacturers means around one-third of its total exports went to the U.S. last year.
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