E-Paper
Gulf bleed, Hormuz choked: Key factors that will determine how US-Iran war ends
The Strait of Hormuz is central to the ongoing conflict reshaping the Middle East, affecting global energy markets and American influence.
The Strait of Hormuz has once again emerged as the nerve centre of a conflict that is reshaping the Middle East, rattling global energy markets and testing the limits of American power. In a wide-ranging conversation on Hindustan Times’ Point Blank, Executive Editor Shishir Gupta unpacks why this narrow waterway has become the focal point of the ongoing Iran war, why the regime in Tehran is battered but still standing, and how the wider Gulf region has been turned into collateral damage.
A War Converging on a 33-Km Chokepoint
Gupta underlines that three principal actors now define the conflict: the US-Israel axis, Iran, and the wider Gulf region – and all three are being directly impacted by the war. The military focus, he says, has unmistakably converged on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime chokepoint through which a huge share of the world’s oil supplies pass.
At its narrowest, the Strait is just about 33 km wide, with a navigable shipping channel of roughly 20 km – a geography that makes it extraordinarily vulnerable to disruption. Iran is exploiting precisely this vulnerability: targeting shipping and attempting to expand the conflict into the Gulf, claiming that states like the UAE, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are complicit in the US war effort. The result is that these Gulf countries, which lack serious offensive capabilities of their own, are being turned into what Gupta bluntly calls “collateral damage.”
Energy Shock and Asia’s Vulnerability
By making commercial shipping through Hormuz risky and unpredictable, Tehran has effectively weaponised global energy flows. Gupta points out that any sustained disruption in this narrow channel immediately translates into spiking crude oil and LPG prices, and a cascading global energy crisis already visible in markets.
About 80% of the oil that transits Hormuz ultimately goes to Asia, making Asian economies particularly exposed to this conflict-induced shock. This has led to a popular theory that Washington and Israel, by paralysing Iran and earlier Venezuela, are indirectly targeting China and Asia’s energy security. Gupta is sceptical of this reading, arguing that Asian nations, including India and China, are more “collateral damage” than deliberate targets, caught between Iran’s escalation and the US-Israel response. In fact, Gupta goes so far as to call this theory “simplistic”.
Iran’s Arsenal Intact, Regime Still Standing
Despite 17 days of relentless precision strikes – targeting nuclear facilities, IRGC infrastructure, air defences and other strategic nodes – Iran continues to fire missiles and deploy drones, a sign that its arsenal is bruised but not exhausted. Gupta notes that Iran has long invested in ballistic missiles and drones, and while its military capability has been “severely degraded, possibly decimated” in conventional terms, it still has enough asymmetric tools to keep the Strait under threat. To further push this point across is the fact that Iran has launched over 50 waves of drone and missile attacks during the war.
The bigger question, however, is political: will President Donald Trump’s plan to collapse the regime in Tehran succeed? Gupta is cautious. He stresses that the Iranian system has been built over decades of hardline indoctrination – generations have grown up hearing only “death to US, death to Israel” – and societies under attack often rally around the flag rather than revolt. The battle inside Iran is opaque: the IRGC is still visible on the streets, Mojtaba Khomeini has issued statements, but the new Supreme Leader has not been clearly seen, leaving outsiders guessing about the real state of the leadership.
Ultimately, Gupta believes the trajectory of the war hinges on whether the regime collapses or not – the true “million-dollar question” in a theatre where there is “hardly any transparency.” He dismisses talk of a never-ending war, arguing that there is a limit to the punishment Iran can absorb, a limit to how much the US and Israel can keep striking, and a limit to how much the Gulf – and the world – can bear the economic pain. He even ventures that there will be a “definite solution” to the conflict within the month.
US Power, China-Russia and the Gulf’s Dilemma
The war has also raised uncomfortable questions about America’s traditional role as the security guarantor of the Middle East. Aayesha Varma asks whether Washington’s reputation has taken a hit, and whether Gulf monarchies will now tilt more towards China and Russia.
Gupta flips the question: China brokered a much-hyped détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia last year, but that “has been blown to pieces” by the current conflict. Beijing and Moscow have supplied arms to Tehran, yet they have neither intervened to shield it nor prevented it from being “pulverized in every way possible” by US and Israeli strikes. By contrast, the US still provides the Patriot batteries and anti-missile defences that protect Gulf skies, underlining that for all their frustrations, regional states have limited alternatives.
He argues that America’s image will truly suffer only if the Iranian regime not only survives but emerges stronger and continues to build weapons. Washington understands this, he says, and will “relentlessly” target Iran until it achieves some form of regime change or a friendlier dispensation, as it did in Venezuela. For the Gulf, the calculus is harsh: they may engage all big powers for their survival and best interests, but the US will remain the primary security anchor, especially after Iran’s attacks on their territory.
India’s Tightrope: Oil, Diplomacy and Risk
For India, the Hormuz crisis is not an abstract geopolitical drama but a direct threat to energy security and inflation. Gupta reveals that after Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and external affairs minister S Jaishankar called his counterpart Araghchi, Tehran showed “some leverage” by agreeing to allow Indian-flagged and Indian-owned tankers to transit the Strait. Four or five such tankers have already passed, he notes, though foreign-flagged vessels bound for India remain excluded.
Even this limited carve-out is fragile. Tankers are moving slowly, captains and crews feel unsafe, and orders from Tehran are not being fully implemented on the ground in Hormuz. With crude already above 100 dollars a barrel and LPG supplies tight, India is scrambling to diversify – tapping Russia and non-Gulf states – and a ship carrying LPG is expected to dock in Kandla to ease immediate pressures. Still, Gupta is clear: there is a genuine, war-induced global energy crisis, and only restored “freedom of navigation” in Hormuz can bring durable relief.
Boots on the Ground and the Afghanistan Template
Beyond air and missile strikes, Gupta flags a potentially decisive development: the US amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli is sailing from the Indo-Pacific towards the Persian Gulf with around 2,500 marines on board. This force could be used either to secure coastlines and protect shipping lanes along Hormuz, or as part of a broader plan to enter Iran and work alongside internal detractors of the IRGC regime.
He draws a pointed historical parallel with Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan after 9/11. Then, too, the US first bombarded Taliban positions, but only succeeded in seizing and holding territory once it put boots on the ground, aligning with the Northern Alliance and later installing a friendly regime under former king Zahir Shah. Replicating that model in Iran, Gupta suggests, may hold clues to how any real regime change could unfold, should Washington choose that path.
Threaded through the conversation is a stark message: this is a fluid, high-stakes conflict where a 33-km-wide strip of water now influences fuel prices in Delhi, factory output in Shanghai and political calculations in Washington, Riyadh and Tehran alike. For now, the world is hostage to whether missiles stop flying over Hormuz – and whether a battered but unbroken regime in Iran bends, breaks or digs in.
