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Memorial Day mayhem- Weather forecast suggest tropical disturbance off Southeast coast of Florida
Computer forecast models indicate that a cold front will linger over Florida throughout the week, coinciding with development of upper-level spin in atmosphere
As the Memorial Day weekend approaches, the FOX Forecast Center is closely monitoring a complex weather situation off the Eastern Seaboard that could result in the development of a tropical disturbance over the western Atlantic.
Stalled Front and Atmospheric Spin Set the Stage
According to computer forecast models, a cold front is expected to stall over Florida this week, coinciding with the formation of atmospheric spin in the upper levels. These combined factors are likely to bring heavy rainfall, rough surf, and gusty winds to coastal areas of the Southeast. If a low-pressure system forms over a warm pool of water off the Southeast coast, there is a possibility that a weak tropical feature could develop.
Marginal Conditions for Development
The FOX Forecast Center notes that both water temperatures and upper-level winds appear to be marginally favorable for slow development. Ocean temperatures range from the lower to mid-70s, reaching near 80 degrees, while upper-level winds are not expected to be strong enough to entirely hinder development.
Impacts and Precautions
Regardless of tropical development, certain regions in Florida should brace for 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in the coming days. The combination of gusty winds and rough seas heightens the risk of rip currents, posing a threat extending from the Carolinas through Florida during the Memorial Day weekend.
Monitoring a Disturbance Near the Bahamas
Before any potential tropical development off the Southeast coast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring a disturbance in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean near the Bahamas. This disturbance is currently generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms, extending northeast of the Bahamas.
Limited Chance of Development
The NHC currently assigns a 10% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression. The NHC Tropical Weather Outlook suggests that the system's development is not expected due to anticipated increases in upper-level winds.
Out-of-Season Development: Rare but Not Impossible
Out-of-season tropical cyclone development is uncommon, with only 3% of tropical cyclones forming outside the official hurricane season. However, May is the most popular month for such development. Historical data from the mid-1800s indicates that around 90 tropical cyclones have formed out of season, with nearly half of them occurring in May.
Recent Out-of-Season Activity
In 2021, Tropical Storm Ana formed in May, developing east of Bermuda before moving northeastward and dissipating at sea. Since 2018, four additional storms have formed during May, but none intensified beyond tropical storm status.
Challenges of Off-Season Development
Development during the offseason is rare, mainly due to the lack of favorable conditions. A recent example was an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico in April, which failed to develop into a named storm.
Looking Ahead to the Atlantic Hurricane Season
The next tropical cyclone reaching tropical storm status in the Atlantic Basin will be named Arlene. The official Atlantic hurricane season spans from June 1 to November 30.
As Memorial Day draws near, meteorologists and forecasters continue to monitor the potential for tropical development, ensuring the public remains informed and prepared for any changes in weather conditions.
