Donald Trump's hypocrisy on Russia-India oil trade, detailed in 3 charts | Number Theory

.

Five days after he threatened India of additional tariffs over the already announced 25 % for its trade with Russia, Donald Trump accused India of financing the “Russian War Machine” by importing Russian crude oil. Here are three charts which expose Trump’s rank hypocrisy and a selfish interest in threatening India over its Russian energy imports.

US President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, DC, on August 5, 2025. (REUTERS)

(Sreedev Krishnakumar helped with the data work for this story)

Donald Trump's hypocrisy on Russia-India oil trade, detailed in 3 charts

• 
  China, not India is the biggest importer of Russian crude since the Ukraine war

  The Russia-Ukraine war started in February 2022. Russian oil exports to the European Union, thanks to the sanctions, fell sharply from 3.5 million barrels per day in 2021 to 3.1, 0.6 and just 0.4 million barrels per day in 2022, 2023 and 2024. Russia’s overall oil exports, however, fell very little over this time, thanks to an increase in imports from China and India. International Energy Agency (IEA) data also shows that Chinese imports of Russian oil have exceeded India’s in every year since 2022. However, Trump has said nothing about Chinese imports of Russian oil so far. His current tariffs of 30% on China could very well fall behind India’s if he imposes a penalty of more than 5% on India because of Russian trade. Trump’s grandstanding about India financing the “Russian War Machine” while ignoring China’s greater financing of it is most likely driven by his concerns about American and European “war machines” rather than the Russian one. On 3 August, the Wall Street Journal reported that “China is limiting the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, delaying production and forcing companies to scour the world for stockpiles of the minerals needed to make everything from bullets to jet fighters”.
• 
  Redirecting Russian oil to China, India prevented a major market disruption

  Had China and India not increased their buying of Russian crude oil, it would have entailed a major disruption to global crude oil trade as European economies started tapping non-Russian sources of crude oil in the world after the Russia-Ukraine war. This was also pointed out by India’s official statement after Trump’s post on Monday. “India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict. The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability”, the statement said. OECD data shows that Russia has largely retained its global export share in crude oil even after the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
• 
  Why is Trump attacking India for doing something eminently sensible then?

  While Trump’s actions are known to defy common sense, he might have a vested interest in forcing India to stop its imports of Russian oil at the moment. Among the most defining changes in the state of play in global energy markets in the recent past has been the US turning from an importer to exporter of petroleum thanks to its shale gas revolution. Trump has always had the goal of increasing US’s shale gas production which can maximize profits for the petrochemicals industry in the US. His decision to exit the global climate accord, which will have catastrophic consequences for the planet, is also driven by this factor. However, shale gas is something which is only profitable to produce if crude prices are above a certain threshold. The existing benign oil price environment threatens Trump’s promise of “drill baby drill” rather than deliver on it. “Drillers that made the US the world’s top oil producer say they are hitting the brakes to weather a period of low crude prices and that the gusher has likely peaked. Some of the largest producers, including Diamondback Energy, recently told investors that they would be spending less this year and plan to drop rigs”, the Wall Street Journal reported in May, adding that “President Trump, who promised to uplift oil and gas, is set to preside over a decline in shale production”. Given this backdrop, it is not very difficult to see why Trump wants oil prices to rise by killing Russian exports to India. He has also been pressuring India to increase its energy imports from the US. While India might very well take a calculated call on its energy imports to protect its larger economic interest – the US is an important factor there – there is nothing statesman like or anti-war in Trump’s linking of the Russian war machine to India’s energy imports.