President Trump wants at long last to raise the pressure on Russia for a cease-fire in Ukraine, and on Wednesday he threatened India with a 50% tariff if it keeps buying Russian oil. The puzzle is why the President is so far giving China a pass, though Beijing buys more Russian oil than does New Delhi.
An oil refinery operated by Hindustan Petroleum Corp., Mumbai, April 4.
The new tariff is included in an executive order “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of the Russian Federation.” India is a target because its purchases of Russian oil are a major source of revenue for Vladimir Putin’s war machine. India has long bought Russian crude, but its purchases since Russia invaded Ukraine have increased enormously and help Mr. Putin continue his deadly rampage.
India has “always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The executive order would add a 25% tax on India’s exports to the U.S. in three weeks if India doesn’t adjust its policy. This would be on top of the 25% tariff that Mr. Trump has already applied to imports from India and is set to begin Thursday. Through June this year, India exported some $56.3 billion in goods to the U.S., making it the twelfth largest U.S. trading partner. The exports include medical products, generic drugs and telephones, among other things.
The 50% tariff will be among the highest U.S. levy on any country, but it’s far below the 500% that a Senate sanctions bill envisions for buyers of Russian oil. That bill has more than 80 co-sponsors, and it is headed for a possible vote in the Senate in September. Mr. Trump can see that political train coming.
India’s foreign ministry deplored the tariff and said it imports Russian oil to meet its energy needs. It didn’t say that India has pushed aside traditional suppliers Iraq and Saudi Arabia to buy Russian crude, which it now buys at a sizable discount from the world price.
India is on firmer ground when it says Mr. Trump is punishing India “for actions that several other countries are also taking in their own national interest.” That means China in particular, and so far Mr. Trump is sparing his friend Xi Jinping.
This may be related to his attempt, as we wrote last week, to draw China away its partnership with Russia. But China is helping Russia with crucial technology for its war effort, and this week Ukraine showed evidence that Chinese mercenaries are fighting with the Russians near Kharkiv in Ukraine.
Let’s hope Mr. Trump has a strategy here because several U.S. Presidents have devoted time and resources to courting India as a strategic counterweight to China in the Asia-Pacific. Walloping India with tariffs for buying Russian oil but giving China a pass won’t make more friends in Delhi.
The best interpretation is that in hitting India Mr. Trump is showing Mr. Putin that he faces more U.S. sanctions and arms if he refuses to negotiate an end to the war. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff spent three hours with the Russian President in Moscow Wednesday, though no details had emerged from the meeting by the time we wrote this.
Word did leak to the press late Wednesday that Mr. Trump hopes to meet with the Russian President soon and then mediate a meeting between Mr. Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. Meantime, Mr. Trump can increase the pressure on Moscow by sending more arms to Ukraine and adding China to the oil-buyers sanctions list.
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