Donald Trump suffers historic collapse on prediction markets as election draws closer, expert attributes it to…

Donald Trump was doing remarkably well on prediction markets less than a week ago, with polling data constantly shifting in his favour, but not anymore.

Published on: Nov 4, 2024, 09:42:15 IST

By Sumanti Sen

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Donald Trump was doing remarkably well on prediction markets less than a week ago, with polling data constantly shifting in his favour. However, that is not the case any longer.

Donald Trump suffers historic collapse on prediction markets as election draws closer (AP)

What are the new predictions?

As the elections draw closer, PredictIt has Kamala Harris in the lead at present. A contract has the vice president’s winning priced at 54 cents on Sunday, which is up from 46 cents on Tuesday and 42 cents a week ago. At present, Trump’s winning contract is priced at 51 cents, which is down from 60 cents on Tuesday.

Kalshi predicts that Trump’s odds of winning were at 51% on Sunday, and Harris was at 49%. In contrast, Trump was at 64.6% on Tuesday, and Harris at 35.4%.

On Sunday, the new IBKR Forecast Trader from Interactive Brokers put the former president’s odds at 54%, while it was 68% on Tuesday. Harris, on the other hand, soared as high as 54% on Sunday and later in the day eased to 48%. This was up from 37% on Tuesday.

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On IBKR, the Harris surge was massive. This prompted Thomas Peterffy, the founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, to share a statement on Friday. “Last night, Kamala Harris engineered a surprisingly ferocious comeback on IBKR’s ForecastTrader platform,” he said, according to Fortune. He noted how an 8-point surge in a day was backed by trading volume of around $40 million. Peterffy attributed the surge to reporting on news events.

Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, suggested that the sudden change came after Trump’s recent rally at Madison Square Garden, when Tony Hinchcliffe triggered an outrage after calling Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean.”

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Miller said that the former president has witnessed a massive collapse since the rally, which might as well result in Harris being finally elected. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., also bolstered Harris’ prospects, showing her leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. Back in September, the poll showed Trump with a 4-point lead over the vice president. Meanwhile, the New York Times/Siena College poll of battleground states on Sunday showed that the race is close. However, last-minute deciders were seen breaking towards Harris.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sumanti Sen
Sumanti Sen covers everything that’s happening in the US, from politics to entertainment, but her expertise lies in covering crime news. She has comprehensively chronicled the Idaho student murders, the Laken Riley and Iryna Zarutska cases, and the killing of Charlie Kirk, among other incidents. Over the years, she has interviewed several victims/families of victims of crimes seeking justice. She digs up stories that might otherwise remain unheard, and does her bit to ensure that victims and survivors’ voices are heard. Sumanti’s many years of experience also include interviews with Hamas attack survivors and mental health experts, among others. Her coverage of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and interviews with survivors of the tragedy, coupled with her other works including the Titan submersible coverage, earned her the Digi Journo of the Quarter award during her first year at Hindustan Times. Sumanti actively tracks missing person cases in the United States, and peruses Reddit and other social media platforms to bring to light cases that frequently elude public attention. She has extensively covered the disappearances of Nancy Guthrie, Thomas Medlin, Beau Mann, and Sudiksha Konanki, among others. When not at work, you will either find her with her novels, or with her beloved rescue pooches.Read More

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