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Harris vs Trump: Here's how US citizens can bet on presidential elections, legal prediction markets are Live now

Oct 07, 2024 06:59 PM IST

Harris vs Trump: American voters can now lawfully bet thousands of dollars on who will win the next month presidential election.

Harris vs Trump: American voters can now lawfully bet thousands of dollars on who will win the next month presidential election.

Harris vs Trump: US citizens can bet on whether Trump or Harris wins the election at Interactive Brokers and Kalshi.(AP)
Harris vs Trump: US citizens can bet on whether Trump or Harris wins the election at Interactive Brokers and Kalshi.(AP)

This development comes after federal appeals court in Washington, DC, permitted a prediction market to conduct election betting ahead of the November 5 election, refusing a government watchdog’s attempt to block a verdict that cleared the way for legal political gambling in the United States.

Following the court's decision, Kalshi, an online betting platform, reopened its congressional control contracts, allowing citizens to wager on whether the Republican or Democratic party will control the House and Senate in 2025.

Three judges found unanimously on October 2, Wednesday that neither the Commodity Futures Trading Commission nor the general public “will be irreparably harmed while its appeal is heard.” The Commission had claimed that the wagers were unlawful and could compromise the fairness of elections.

Kalshi has long maintained that the contracts serve the public interest by giving precise information for predicting elections and enabling individuals to diversify their bets on various results. The portal has also highlighted the growth of Polymarket, an unregulated, offshore cryptocurrency-based prediction market that gained prominence after the CNN June debate. Users have wagered over $1 billion on the presidential contest on Kalshi.

The court rendered its decision over two weeks ago after the panel heard arguments for the lifting of Kalshi's congressional contracts suspension.

The judges questioned the agency for hours about whether the markets would compromise the integrity of the November elections.

Speaking to CNN, Kalshi lawyer Yaakov Roth emphasized the advantages of a platform, stating that elections have important economic ramifications that “real people want to hedge.”

He further explained, “The election itself causes certain companies to increase in value or decrease in value, that is the risk, and so to hedge that risk, you would want to buy an event contract that accommodates that and that accounts for that.”

Also Read: Trump calls his team ‘so stupid’, faces ‘embarrassment’ as new footage appears to show how fans ditched him: Watch

Legal prediction markets are Live now

On Friday morning, October 4, trading began on the first regulated marketplaces that permitted bets on the presidential fight between Harris and Trump. Interactive Brokers and financial exchange startup Kalshi were the leading brokers in this market.

Some traders will be able to wager up to $100 million on Kalshi. Additionally, both businesses allow traders to wager on which party will hold the Senate and House in 2025. In addition to other swing states, Interactive Brokers offers markets for the Senate contests in Wisconsin, Arizona, and Ohio.

The website of Kashi shows that the chance of Harris winning this election is 51 percent, while Trump's 49 percent. It features questions like “who will win the presidential race?” and “who will win the Senate race in Wisconsin?”

“Politics is a very hot topic for a lot of people. They have strong beliefs one way or another,” stated Interactive Brokers senior vice president Steve Sanders, as per Politico. “So, since the elections are in the news, we think that this could be a catalyst to really get things going.”

Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in the White House race, as per betting platform Kalshi.
Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in the White House race, as per betting platform Kalshi.

Shortly after the platform's opening, Interactive Brokers' platform saw the trading of over 500,000 contracts related to the presidential contest, a firm representative said. On the other hand, over $300,000 worth of contracts were traded in Kalshi's presidential markets, according to the company website.

Here's how Americans can bet on elections

US citizens can bet on whether Trump or Harris wins the election at Interactive Brokers and Kalshi. In each scenario, a user can buy contracts that pay out around $1 in case his bet is correct and nothing if the bet is wrong.

Meanwhile, the WSJ reports that their prices are subject to change in response to speculators' evaluations of the likelihood of a Trump or Harris victory.

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Read breaking news, latest updates from United States on topics related to US Election, politics, crime, along with national affairs. Stay up to date with news developments on Kamala Harris,Donald Trump,and Joe Biden
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