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On election day ‘Nostradamus’ Allan Lichtman is sticking to his poll prediction, questions Nate Silver’s calculations
US Election Result Prediction: US top election forecasters Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver give their predictions
As America awaits decision on its next president everyone eagerly wants to understand where the race is headed in one of the most polarised elections in its history.
Even as Trump's camp has announced a premature victory historian Allan Lichtman has reiterated that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly defeat former President Donald Trump.
In a post on X he took a jibe at his fellow predictor Nate Silver, despite him sharing the same projected result.
After predicting nine of 10 elections right Lichtman, shared a post on X on Monday saying, "Nate Silver’s compilation of polls is so unreliable that he now says that who will win the presidency is down to luck."
It's surprising as Nate Silver too is predicting a Kamala win
Who is Allan Lichtman? Historian with a Perfect Record
Allan Lichtman, a 77-year-old historian whose "13 Keys to the White House" system has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, except for the contentious 2000 election.
Lichtman’s method relies on a series of true/false statements about the incumbent party's performance, ranging from economic indicators to social unrest, to predict the election outcome.
Confident in his model’s ability, Lichtman declared on social media, "Mark my words… The Keys will be right again!" Despite his confidence, Lichtman expressed unusual anxiety this year, attributing it to the fragility of democracy. In a candid interview, he remarked, "For the vast sweep of human history, there has been almost no democracy... I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach this year."
Who is Nate Silver? Data-Driven Statistician
Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, is celebrated for his rigorous statistical approach to election forecasting. His final prediction for the 2024 race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump hinges on razor-thin probabilities.
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Silver emphasized the role of "luck" in his forecast, noting the minuscule differences in outcomes across his simulations. Silver’s model ran 80,000 simulations, with Harris narrowly emerging victorious in 40,012 of them, underscoring the unprecedented closeness of this election.
Silver's method is rooted in extensive polling data, historical trends, and numerous variables, making his model a favorite for those who trust in numbers and probabilities. Yet, Silver acknowledges the inherent uncertainties and variability, particularly in such a polarized political environment.
