What is Yiwu Index? China's campaign hat market that accurately forecasted US 2016 election, makes shocking prediction
China is presumably applying the ‘Yiwu Index’ theory as it watches the 2024 election, which is all set to take on 5 November.
China's Yiwu features the world's largest wholesale market, where business is flourishing as traders search for cheap products to stock their shelves. However, political analysts are also keeping a close check on a phenomenon they refer to as the “Yiwu Index”. According to the notion, a US presidential candidate's chances of winning the next election enhance with the success of their replica item sales in Yiwu.
Interestingly, the ‘Yiwu Index’ predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016 more accurately than pollsters who were certain Hillary Clinton would win the election.
Beijing is presumably applying the theory as it watches the 2024 election, which is all set to take on 5 November, Daily Mail reported.
What is Yiwu Index?
Political campaigns have always heavily relied on merchandise. While candidates often use their official clothing to raise money, foreign retailers have flooded the market with copies of the candidates' merchandise, taking advantage of the growing divisiveness of American politics.
Yiwu is renowned for offering early warnings about upcoming presidential elections based on the kind of goods it sells. However, the market isn't perfect, and there are flaws in relying on the index to try and forecast the result.
First, the market mostly depends on wholesale trade and hardly ever sells products directly to customers.
Retailers can typically place bulk orders for specific products during this buying period in anticipation of a spike in demand.
The likelihood of Trump supporters displaying, wearing, and purchasing goods that reflect their political affiliations is far higher than that of followers of Vice President Kamala Harris or any other candidate.
Despite the fact that Trump merchandise made in China sold more than goods bearing Joe Biden's name in 2020, the latter nevertheless declared victory.
Yiwu's prediction for 2024 US election
Before 2024 US election, Yiwu's marketplace saw a sharp increase in demand for camouflage Harris-Walz campaign caps, which is good sign for Democrats.
According to The Telegraph, the first batch entirely sold out within 30 minutes of going on sale.
However, Zoe Liu Zongyuan of the Council on Foreign Relations, a research institution based in the United States, warned the outlet that the ranking might not be accurate.
Drawing a comparison between somebody having a Trump or Harris neighbor, Zongyuan said the Trump voters are more likely to display their MAGA stuff.
“Democrats, people who vote independently, or the undecided, are less likely to spend money to buy those things. So I would say, because voter behavior has changed, the way they show their enthusiasm has changed, the Yiwu Index may no longer be an accurate indicator.”
According to the Yiwu theory, Trump's higher sales than those of his competitors may be a sign of anticipated voter turnout.
“When everybody was saying that the Democrats, Hilary Clinton, was going to win (in 2016) the index suggested otherwise,” Zongyuan stated, highlighting that the Americans, diplomats, and rally attendees are the ones purchasing these goods, not the Chinese.