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Why the new US-Saudi nuclear deal could trigger a global nuclear chain reaction
Why is Saudi Arabia going nuclear? Learn about the US-Saudi nuclear deal, uranium enrichment, Iran fears, Vision 2030 and global nuclear concerns.
The US has signed a civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia under President Donald Trump. The deal will help Saudi Arabia develop a civilian nuclear energy program. The agreement is for peaceful nuclear energy, but experts say it has raised fears that Saudi Arabia could one day move toward building nuclear weapons.
The deal reminds experts of the US policy called "Atoms for Peace," started by President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1953. Under that policy, the US shared nuclear technology with countries if they promised to use it only for peaceful purposes, according to The New York Times. Experts now say the world is entering a new phase called "nuclear hedging." This means countries are developing nuclear capabilities so they have the option to build weapons later if security conditions become worse.
Why the US-Saudi nuclear deal is raising concerns
Saudi Arabia's agreement comes at a time when many US allies are worried about wars, regional threats, energy security, and whether they can still fully depend on US military protection. Under the agreement, Saudi Arabia could eventually be allowed to enrich uranium for nuclear reactors. Uranium enrichment is important because the same technology used for civilian nuclear fuel can also be used to produce material for nuclear weapons if taken further.
The deal may also limit the number of nuclear sites international inspectors can visit. Experts say these two concessions are very unusual compared to recent US nuclear agreements and have increased concerns about future weapons development, according to The New York Times. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has openly linked Saudi Arabia's nuclear plans to Iran's actions. He has previously warned that if Iran builds a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia will also seek one.
MIT professor Vipin Narang said many countries are now trying to prepare for uncertain security situations. "We’re back in an era of nuclear hedging," said Vipin Narang, professor of nuclear security and political science at MIT. Narang further said, "You’ve got a lot of nervous countries facing a deteriorating security situation who are unsure they can rely on their formal or informal protectors", according to The New York Times. He also warned, "We’re going to see a cascade of states looking for the capacity to pursue a military program" that could eventually produce nuclear weapons.
Gary Samore, a professor at Brandeis University, said such countries are sometimes called "friendly proliferators," according to The New York Times. Experts also said that not every country developing civilian nuclear technology will eventually build nuclear weapons. Experts believe the global nuclear market could now become less strict, with countries demanding more freedom in future nuclear agreements.
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They also warned that countries like Russia and China could use the Saudi deal as an example to offer similar agreements to other nations. Gary Samore blamed weakening confidence in US security guarantees. "It’s very connected to the damage Trump has done to credibility of the US as a guarantor of security," Mr. Samore said, according to The New York Times.
Why more countries are thinking about nuclear power
Several countries that do not currently have nuclear weapons are now discussing whether they should develop nuclear capabilities. These countries include Germany, Poland, Japan and South Korea. South Korea has already started plans to build nuclear-powered submarines with US support because of the threat from nuclear-armed North Korea. Japan is also reconsidering the role of nuclear weapons in national defense despite its history with Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Poland's President Karol Nawrocki has said his country should pursue a nuclear program. Germany has joined a high-level nuclear steering group with France and other European countries. France has promised to strengthen its nuclear deterrence and extend protection to European allies because of concerns that the US security commitment is weakening. "The next half-century will be an age of nuclear weapons," President Emmanuel Macron said. Experts believe strong military alliances are one of the biggest reasons many countries never developed nuclear weapons, according to The New York Times.
Matthew Fuhrmann, professor of security studies at the University of Texas, said, "The best nonproliferation tool the US ever had is its military alliances." He added, "If the US did not extend nuclear protection to as many countries as it did, we’d be in a world with more nuclear weapons states." Fuhrmann also said, "But I don’t think it lowers their desire to hedge," meaning countries still want the ability to develop nuclear programs if needed. Experts noted that France itself has historically helped countries such as Israel, Iraq and Pakistan develop nuclear programs, according to The New York Times.
How wars changed the global nuclear race
Civil nuclear agreements slowed after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan because many countries reduced interest in nuclear power. Interest in nuclear energy returned after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, creating energy security concerns. Concerns grew further after the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, when Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's new deal is different from the United Arab Emirates' 2009 nuclear agreement with the US.
The UAE agreement did not allow uranium enrichment and required strict international inspections, making it the "gold standard" for preventing nuclear weapons. Trump also removed a condition that President Joe Biden had pushed for — requiring Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel before getting a nuclear agreement. Experts believe Trump made these concessions because the conflict with Iran had made Saudi Arabia feel less secure, according to The New York Times.
Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the agreement reflects changing views of US security. "This deal is a tangible confirmation of the erosion of trust and confidence in Washington as a result of the Iran war," Suzanne Maloney said. She also said, "Gulf leaders have no realistic alternative to the US security umbrella, but they also are seeing firsthand evidence of its limitations and liabilities. So they are determined to expand their autonomy and capabilities." Experts say Iran's damaged nuclear facilities may discourage some countries from building nuclear weapons because they could become military targets, according to The New York Times.
However, others may think the opposite—that getting nuclear weapons quickly could protect them from future attacks. Experts do not believe Saudi Arabia can build a nuclear bomb anytime soon because it currently has very limited nuclear infrastructure and would need many years to produce weapons-grade uranium. Experts are more worried that other countries with advanced nuclear technology may now demand the same rights that Saudi Arabia received.
Gary Samore said the biggest concern is the example this deal sets for the rest of the world. "To me, the danger of this deal is the precedent," Mr. Samore said. He added, "What’s to stop Russia from making a deal like this?", according to The New York Times.
