Uncertain days ahead for France amidst political gridlock
The snap election leads to a hung Parliament. The resulting political stalemate threatens governance and economy in France.
In the United Kingdom, general elections ousted the Conservatives and delivered a predictable Labour victory. But in neighbouring France, the tension has been palpable ever since President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election after his party’s dismal performance in the European Parliament (EP) elections in early June.
The first round of the French legislative election, conducted on June 30, saw 1 in 3 voters supporting the far-right National Rally headed by Marine Le Pen. Yet the centrist and left’s strategy of creating a “Republican Front” to prevent splitting the anti-far right vote resulted in a plot twist in the second round on July 7, when voter turnout at 67% was the highest ever since the 1997 elections. The Left-wing New Popular Front (NPF) gained 188 seats (up from its previous 131), Macron’s Ensemble coalition (ENS) won 161 seats, and the far-right National Rally (RN) secured 142 seats. Even after coming second, Macron’s centrist coalition lost a third of its seats, a dramatic come-down from its 240 seats in the outgoing Parliament. On the other hand, the RN, even while unexpectedly coming third, dramatically increased numbers from its outgoing 89 to now 142 seats, emerging as the largest party in the French National Assembly given that the other two are coalitions.
The Parliament from hell?
The fact that none of the three groups won the absolute majority of 289 seats needed in France’s 577-member lower house of Parliament has plunged the country into a period of political deadlock and a hung Parliament.
While the far-right bête noire may have been temporarily thwarted, the challenge of governing together now looms in this centre and left “alliance of convenience” that was only put together to reduce the far-right’s numbers. In reality, the two blocs have nothing much in common. Besides, coalitions are also divided amongst themselves. The broad NPF Left alliance, which comprises the Socialists, Greens, Communists and France Unbowed put their differences aside and united just ahead of the election. But while the far-left France Unbowed holds the maximum seats, its radical leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon is considered an extremist by others.
Passing contentious reforms involving pensions and immigration was already proving difficult after Macron’s loss of parliamentary majority in the 2022 elections, which forced him to override Parliament on various occasions. Macron’s ability to act and pass important reforms will be further reduced in the current wieldy arrangement of three major competing ideological blocs, none of whom see eye to eye on the country’s biggest issues from immigration to taxation, wages, and public spending. This may reduce Macron to a lame-duck president in his remaining three years, with political chaos paving the way for the far-right’s larger goal of the 2027 presidential elections when Macron’s term ends. His Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has already pledged his resignation (despite Macron’s refusal), with no clear upcoming candidate for the position in sight.
The deeply polarising result may also impact French societal cohesion amid high costs of living and economic strife. France currently has a budget deficit of over 5% of GDP, with a growth rate that slumped to 0.7% in 2023.
Foreign policy implications and the EU
The turmoil in domestic politics will leave Macron less bandwidth to focus on his pet project of European integration, potentially leaving some of his initiatives such as strengthening European defence in tatters.
As the EU’s second-largest economy with significant military prowess, Paris has long held outsized influence at the EU level in Brussels. Previously driven by a Franco-German engine, Brussels will now have to reckon with the discredited leaders of both countries consumed by domestic pressures, while confronting mammoth challenges including war on its eastern flank amidst a possible return of Donald Trump to presidency and his contempt for NATO back in the White House. (In Berlin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition suffered a humiliating defeat in the European Parliament elections at the behest of the Christian Democrats and far-right Alternative for Germany). Moreover, RN’s historic cosiness with Russia may dent ongoing French support to Ukraine, along with the future of EU enlargement under question. On Israel-Gaza, the left’s pro-Palestinian stance clashes with RN’s pro-Israel position.
The EP elections yielded an emboldened far-right even while the centre held. To top this, a new far-right group called “Patriots for Europe”, put together by the notorious Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, has recently emerged as the third largest force in the European Parliament. RN, ready to play the spoiler in the EU, has not only joined this new group but is also heading it with Le Pen’s protégé Jordan Bardella already appointed as its president.
For a key member state like France to develop an uneasy relationship with Brussels, while the EU itself begins a new institutional cycle bodes dangerously for the Union’s functioning. Moreover, both far-right and far-left goals of reforming the EU from within and taking back national control may disrupt efforts to formulate or approve critical policy at the EU level.
Even as Paris gears to host the Olympics on July 26, the Fifth Republic is poised for dark days as Macron balances his precarious position between the radical left and the nationalist right.
Shairee Malhotra is associate fellow, Europe at ORF. The views expressed are personal
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