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Maharashtra election result 2019: BJP will lead next govt in Maharashtra, but expect Sena to play hardball
The current leads show BJP is leading in just 100 seats, 22 seats less than its tally in 2014 polls.
The Maharashtra assembly poll results on Thursday are proving to be a dampener to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) despite a clear indication that the BJP-Shiv Sena coalition is set for a second stint in power.
The current leads show BJP is leading in 100 seats, 22 seats fewer than its tally in 2014 polls.
The BJP contested 164 seats in an alliance with the Sena, which was allocated 124 seats. The Sena put up two more candidates in two seats where the allies had a friendly contest.
In all, the BJP’s top leadership had hoped to win 135-plus seats in the 288-member state assembly and set a target of 220 seats for the combine. This meant a strike rate of more than 80% which neither of the two alliance partners came close to delivering on.
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This implies that the dependence of the BJP, the largest party in the state, on the Shiv Sena to form the government has increased. The BJP needs 45 Sena legislators to reach the half-way mark this time, compared to just 23 in 2014..
It also means that Shiv Sena’s bargaining power will increase and it will insist on an equal share of power including the chief minister’s tenure. It is a message that the Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut delivered early in the day on Thursday when he reminded the senior partner in the alliance about the 50-50 formula that had been agreed upon.
BJP leaders say chief minister Devendra Fadnavis will get a second term. But opinion is divided on whether the BJP would be able to continue with him in the top post. One BJP leader said it would depend on how the equation with the Shiv Sena pans out.
The BJP-led government will certainly have the Sena breathing down its neck and a more aggressive opposition to counter in the state legislature.
The Maharashtra poll campaign had also turned into a Fadnavis versus NCP chief Sharad Pawar battle and the results show that Pawar has won this round by stopping the BJP from achieving its target.
“The BJP-Sena will come to power for a second term, the mandate is for us even after five years in power. We could not reach our target of 220 seats and we will introspect over this,” said senior BJP leader Sudhir Mungantiwar.
Mungantiwar also indicated that rebel candidate, a majority of them from the BJP camp, had cost the party quite a few votes. In all, there were 35 rebels from the ruling alliance.
“There were rebels in the saffron camp and current trends also show a presence of several independents. Majority of them will support the BJP. We will have to go back and introspect where we went wrong in selection of candidates or the strategy but that doesn’t take away from our win,” added Mungantiwar.
The party had also poached several political heavyweights from the Opposition as part of its strategy to increase its tally and quick-fix gaps in its support base. Many of these turncoats failed to win.
Turncoats from the NCP such as ex-MLAs Vaibhav Pichad, Dilip Sopal, Jaydutt Kshirsagar and former Congress leaders such as Harshawardhan Patil, Nirmala Gavit are all trailing.
A BJP leader said the party would also look at whether these defections proved counter-productive.
At least three of BJP’s sitting ministers lost.They included the party’s Other Backward Class (OBC) face and senior leader Pankaja Munde, who lost her seat to her cousin and NCP leader Dhananjay Munde. The other two ministers who lost their seats were Ram Shinde and Bala Bhegade, who were also defeated by NCP candidates.
A senior Maharashtra BJP leader said there was a view within the party that campaign issues the party raised, such as national security and scrapping the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, did not have traction with people in rural areas.
“The Opposition, especially NCP chief Sharad Pawar’s aggressive campaign, also went against us. The ED {Enforcement Directorate} case against him was used by him to consolidate his demoralised party and his constituency,” said the BJP leader, who did not want to be named.
It is a point that Pawar reinforced after the election results came in.
“There was a certain mean-mindedness and misuse of power in the BJP strategy such as the ED case against me that did not work with people. It is also clear that people did not like the opportunism of Opposition leaders leaving their parties {at the} last minute to join the ruling parties” Pawar told reporters in Mumbai.
A big chunk of the BJP’s losses were in its stronghold of Vidarbha.
In Vidarbha, where the BJP had won 42 seats in 2014, it is currently leading in 29 seats. The Congress is leading in 17 seats here.
The BJP also could not make the necessary gains in NCP-Cong bastion of Western Maharashtra that votes in 70 legislators. The Opposition managed to retain more than half of its home turf in western Maharashtra. The Opposition is currently leading in 41 seats in the region.
