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Donald Trump's new student visa policy is set to dent US economy, erode local jobs
Donald Trump aims to tighten US student visa rules, as part of a broader crackdown on illegal immigration. That’s likely to eat into the wider economy.
The US economy is likely to take a multibillion-dollar hit, with thousands of local jobs lost, due to a new student visa policy that’s designed to keep foreigners out.
A 30-40% decline in international students enrolling into US universities in August-September would result in nearly $7 billion in lost revenue and more than 60,000 jobs, according to new research by NAFSA and JB International based on US State Department data. NAFSA is the world’s largest non-profit association for international education and student exchange.
In 2023-2024, US universities admitted 1,126,690 foreign students, generating $43.83 billion in revenue and 378,175 new jobs. That figure rose to 1,185,841 in 2024-25 with $46.13 billion revenue and 398,029 new jobs. For 2025-26, NAFSA is pencilling in a 15% decline overall: 1,007,965 students generating $39.21 billion and 338,325 jobs created.
What's Driving The Decline?
- Suspension of visa interviews: The US government paused student visa interviews between 27 May and 18 June 2025—the peak season for issuances—to broaden and institutionalise social media and online screening of applicants. Interviews resumed mid-June, now under stricter protocols.
- Limited number of appointments: There are reports of limited or no appointments for international students in India, China, Nigeria and Japan. India and China are the top two foreign student cohorts in the US, Nigeria is seventh and Japan is 13th.
- Downward visa trends: The issuance of F-1 visa for students fell 12% between January and April 2025, 22% in May, and by estimated 80-90% in June. That decline stems from a June 4 executive order that imposed visa restrictions on 19 countries.
“Without significant recovery in visa issuance in July and August, up to 150,000 fewer students may arrive this fall (autumn),” NAFSA said in a statement. “NAFSA urges Congress to direct the US State Department to provide expedited visa appointments and processing for all F-1 and M-1 students and J-1 exchange visitor visa applications.”
New US Student Visa Policy
The Trump administration has proposed a new US student visa policy that would create a fixed time period for F visas for international students, and J visas that allows visitors on cultural exchange programs to work in the US. In 2024, there were about 1.6 million foreign students on F visas in the US as well as 355,000 exchange visitors, according to government data.
The student and exchange visa will last no longer than four years, according to the proposed regulation. The change was needed to better “monitor and oversee” the visa holders while they were in the United States.
The India Angle
To be sure, student arrivals from India to the US have already halved this year.
Total arrivals on student visas fell for the fourth straight month in July, declining 28% to just under 79,000, according to data from the International Trade Administration. That was also the biggest monthly drop so far this year.
Student arrivals from India fell 46% while China posted a 26% decline.
“There are real reasons for concern,” Zuzana Cepla Wootson, deputy director of federal policy at Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, told Bloomberg previously. “It’s part of a broader pattern under this Trump administration. The travel ban, expanded screening, visa backlogs—all these create uncertainty for students from India, China and beyond.”
