Inflation to be 6-6.9% by March 2011: RBI survey

Forecasters in an RBI survey pegged inflation in the range of 6% to 6.9% by the end of this fiscal, against the central bank's projection of 5.5%.

Forecasters in an RBI survey pegged inflation in the range of 6% to 6.9% by the end of this fiscal, against the central bank's projection of 5.5%.

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"Forecasters have assigned highest 34.3% chance that it (inflation) will fall in 6-6.9% in end March of 2010-11," RBI said in a survey.

Clarifying that the survey does not represent the views of RBI, it said forecasters have slightly revised the projections for economic growth to 8.5% this fiscal from 8.4% last survey, which is in line with government and central bank's expectation.

The forecasters also expect economic growth to be 8.5% next fiscal, lower than 9% pegged by the government.

These are the mean GDP growth projected by forecasters. However, they have assigned highest probability to 8.5-8.9% growth for this fiscal and 8-8.5% for next fiscal.

Maximum number of forecasters predicted economic growth to be 9.2% this fiscal and 9% during 2011-12.

Inflation has fallen to a nine-month low 8.58% in October from 8.62% in September.

Economic growth had fallen to 6.7% during 2008-09 after the economy came under the impact of global financial crisis against 8.7% recorded in the previous five years.

After the government provided stimulus, the economic growth moved up to 7.4% during 2009-10.

In the first quarter of this fiscal, economy expanded by 8.8%. The government has pegged economy to grow by 8.5% this fiscal and retained the target despite industrial growth slowing down for the second consecutive month to a 16-month low of 4.4% in September.

The survey is based a questionnaire responded by 30 forecasters.