Planners cut 5-year growth estimate

The Planning Commission has scaled down India’s economic growth target for the 11th Five-year Plan that ends in 2013 from 9 per cent to 7.8 per cent. This follows slow recovery from the global downturn and a drought that has hit over half the country. Chetan Chauhan reports.

Updated on: Aug 31, 2009, 03:07:29 IST

Hindustan Times | By Chetan Chauhan, New Delhi

Prefer HTon Google

Share via

Copy link

The Planning Commission has scaled down India’s economic growth target for the 11th Five-year Plan that ends in 2013 from 9 per cent to 7.8 per cent. This follows slow recovery from the global downturn and a drought that has hit over half the country.

“It is a recognition of something that is there on the ground,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist, HDFC Bank, who expects corporate profits to fall and job creation to slow.

“There is a scope for further downward revision. It would depend on how the business cycle picks up. It is expected to revive by mid-2010,” he said.

In a note circulated for the Planning Commission meeting to be held by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday, the panel said the 2009-10 fiscal growth would be 6.3 per cent as against an earlier projection of 7 per cent because of an estimated fall of 2.5 per cent in agricultural contribution.

The situation could pick up if the rabi crop gets better rains in September.

India’s food stocks are safe, but the price of food commodities could go up by 12 to 15 per cent by next March, the member said. “Food prices could be under pressure if the demand-supply situation is not managed effectively,” the note states.

The crunch could lead to many sectors getting less funds from the government.

(With contributions from Sandeep Singh)

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chetan Chauhan
Chetan Chauhan is the National Affairs Editor looking into all aspects of news and features from across India. A Chevening scholar with over three decades of experience in reporting and news management, Chetan has extensively covered all important aspects of the social sector, political economy, environment and climate change nationally and internationally. He did a journalism course at the Reuters Institute of Journalism in Oxford and Digital Media training at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. He started as a reporter with The Statesman in 1996 and joined the Hindustan Times in 2000 in the metro bureau covering environment, crime and Delhi politics. He covered hot local news, from the Jessica Lal murder case to the rebellion of Delhi Congress MLAs against then Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, to the replacement of toxic vehicle fuel with cleaner compressed natural gas (CNG) in the national capital. Some of his stories on air pollution became part of the Supreme Court’s landmark MC Mehta versus Government of India case in the National Capital Region (NCR), forcing the government to take corrective measures. As part of the national political bureau since 2004, he covered important central sectors such as environment, education, social justice, labour, rural development, water resources, renewable energy, agriculture, broadcasting and the Planning Commission for more than a decade producing several exclusive and investigative breaking stories. His specialisation is the environment, having covered at least a dozen United Nations global conferences on climate change, biodiversity and wildlife including climate summits in Paris, Copenhagen and Bali. He also covered India’s two five-year plans ---11th and 12th and reported on drafting and execution of right based laws such as Right to Education, Right to Information and rural job guarantee law, MG-NREGA, now being introduced in new format as VG-RAM-G Act. He has in-depth knowledge of social sector issues. He was one of the first to report on tigers vanishing from Sariska and Panna wildlife reserves in 2004 and 2008, respectively, leading to the setting up of the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) and the introduction of stringent penal provisions for poaching. He has written extensively on the rising human-animal conflict in India and the degradation of India’s biodiversity hotspots because of mining and other activities. Since 2004, Chetan has covered Parliament comprehensively and participated in training on the nuanced coverage of Parliament proceedings. He has travelled extensively across India to cover national and provincial elections since 1998, especially in the Hindi heartland states, considered India’s road to power. He writes a regular column for Hindustan Times, Ecostani, on important national politics, economy, Himalayan ecology and environmental issues. His other responsibilities include providing inputs for edits and edit page articles for the publication, apart from managing news flow from across India.Read More

Stay updated with the latest Business News on Petrol Price, Gold Rate, Silver Rates, Diesel Prices along with Income Tax Calculator