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Expert predicts 6,500 Covid-19 cases daily in Bengaluru by April 20
Bengaluru reported 2,787 new Covid-19 infections on Saturday, taking its active case count to 28,098.
Experts have predicted that continued negligence to maintain social distancing and following other safety protocols in Bengaluru is likely to send the rapidly evolving Covid-19 crisis into an uncontrollable spiral.
“At this rate, #Bengaluru will have ~6500 daily cases by 20th April. Even if 10% of them require hospitalization, the health system will run out of capacity in (a) few days. We need action now, not tomorrow. Stay home people, wear masks if going out and get (a) vaccine when eligible,” epidemiologist Girdhara R Babu said in a tweet on Sunday.
Babu, who is a professor at the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI) and member of Karnataka’s technical advisory committee (TAC) on Covid-19, said that most of the congregations are preventable and measures that could have been taken at a local level are fast evolving, necessitating national level mitigation. He said that this was a “conservative estimate” and not a pessimistic approach.
Even if 10% of those testing positive each day require hospitalisation, the system will collapse, he added.
Bengaluru reported 2,787 new Covid-19 infections on Saturday, taking its active case count to 28,098. The active case count in Karnataka approached the 40,000-mark as 4,553 fresh infections were reported across the state.
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Mysuru, about 125 kilometres from Bengaluru, reported 260 new cases while the situation in Bidar, Kalaburagi, Tumakuru, Bengaluru Rural, Hassan and Dharwad, among other places, also deteriorated, as per the data from the daily bulletin of the health department.
There were 93 new infections in Ballari, 147 in Bidar, 155 in Bengaluru Rural, 83 in Dakshina Kannada, 100 in Dharwad, 104 in Hassan, 170 in Kalaburagi and 107 in Tumakuru, data showed.
“While the lockdown in 2020 was mostly unavoidable, the impending one in 2021 is mostly preventable,” he added.
The predictions come at a time when Bengaluru and several other districts of Karnataka have seen a sharp spike in Covid-19 cases, indicating that the second wave of infections was spreading faster than what was seen the first time since March 2020.
The area of concern remains the rapidly surging positivity rate in the state. On Saturday, the positivity rate remained at 3.79% while 331 people were in the intensive care units of various hospitals in the state including 158 in Bengaluru alone.
The state government is hoping the Covid-19 vaccination drive to contain the spread of the virus. However, Babu said vaccination can prevent Covid-19 from turning serious or fatal but doesn’t guarantee immunity from the virus.
He said that those who have got both doses of the vaccine should continue to wear masks as they are not immune from the virus and can spread it further.
The Karnataka government has vaccinated 43,55,893 people across categories. In a brief statement on Sunday, the Chief Minister’s Office (CMO) said that on request from Karnataka, the Government of India is making an emergency supply of 15.25 lakh doses to the state. The statement added that the state has 7 lakh vaccines and that it inoculated 2.5 lakh people on Saturday alone.
“Karnataka will receive 15,25,500 doses of Covid-19 vaccine tomorrow in two consignments. One consignment of 5,25,500 doses will arrive at Belagavi by road and another consignment of 10,00,000 doses will arrive at Bengaluru by air through a late evening flight,” K Sudhakar, Karnataka’s health, family welfare and medical education minister said on Sunday.
