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Guest Column | 2024: A year to hope for some sanity
Many global leaders will be busy securing their thrones. Forty nations go to the polls in 2024, including seven of the most populous nations like the US, Russia, India, etc. Fifty-one per cent of the world, 4.17 billion people will elect new leaders. Generally, the incumbents will retain their jobs.
Elections, wars and inflation will dominate
In 2024, we will learn to hope, though many countries will engage in battles, others will fight poverty and inequality.
Many global leaders will be busy securing their thrones. Forty nations go to the polls in 2024, including seven of the most populous nations like the US, Russia, India, etc. Fifty-one per cent of the world, 4.17 billion people will elect new leaders. Generally, the incumbents will retain their jobs.
The Israel imbroglio has side-lined the Russia-Ukraine war. Both these conflicts may drag through 2024. Generations of youngsters have perished.
Biden may just scrape through to the top job. Americans are weary of fighting wars for others. They do not put boots on the ground anywhere. Just armaments. Save your blushes, if Trump romps home. Then global paradigms will change drastically. Putin will rejoice.
Putin will be beleaguered by the Ukraine war and Biden. He will secure his election and strengthen his fraternity with China, Iran and Syria. Xi will continue to rule China and confound the US. Xi is a charmer. Hopefully, he will break the ice with Biden and dampen the new cold war.
Zelenskyy will struggle to collate adequate soldiers, missiles and guns to continue an attritive war. Ukraine should negotiate. The West is wearying of supporting its long war. Cameron’s return will strengthen Sunak. Europe will play second fiddle to the US and struggle to grow. Migrants will find many doors closing.
Arab nations should broker a peace-solution to the Israel-Hamas combat. Hamas must learn to coexist with Israel. Israel cannot be wished away.
Modi will return to his job. His opponents are fragmented. Pakistan’s politics will continue to flounder. Aung San Suu Kyi, 78, languishes in a prison in Myanmar.
Social media will generate fake news in countries electing new sultans. Politics is turning poisonous and acrimonious by the day. Expect copious social media blasphemes, cash-handouts and mudslinging.
Sluggish economies
With guns blazing in Gaza and Ukraine and electioneering all-around, economic growth will be neglected. The global economy will grow at a pedantic 2.5%. American and European economies will scuffle at 1.8%.
Dubai will flourish, luring rich Russians and Indians. India at 6% growth and China at 5% will lead global growth. These impressive growth rates should trickle to people. Indian and Chinese youngsters ceaselessly seek brighter futures abroad.
Global inflation could decline from 6.8% to 5.2%. It will provide scant relief. In Europe, the poor choose between heating their homes and eating. The burden of ever-rising prices is crushing. In India, 67% of the population, i.e. 800 million, will receive free rice and wheat every month, for the next five years.
Expect oil prices to hover at $80-85 per barrel. Gold prices could touch $2,400 per ounce. In an ambiguous world, it is durable. Stock markets will tiptoe upwards; however, expect no windfalls.
The world will continue to be inequitable. The richest 10% own 53% of the wealth. According to Oxfam, since 1995, the top 1% of the world’s rich have garnered 20 times more wealth than the bottom 50%. About a billion people, in 110 countries live in poverty. Over 110 million people are stateless.
Depositing cash in the banks of the lower-incomed, as Brazil and India do, is a band-aid remedy. Teaching a man to bake bread, is better than giving him free bread to eat.
Innovations
Artificial intelligence (AI) will be another giant leap for mankind, if harnessed. Uncontrolled, it will impact livelihoods. Scientists have more wonders on the plate, like technologies to lengthen human life and pioneer brain implants.
Unless we manage the fumes from our factories and cars, fate will overtake us. Hopefully, environment, sustainability, governance (ESG), will not remain a corporate banner, but will be implemented. Corporations will insist that employees work in offices.
Olympics and Oscars
The Paris Olympics will entertain us with a focus on excellence and skill. Cricketing countries will compete for the T-20 World Cup.
“Oppenheimer” and its hero Cillian Murphy should hold Oscar statuettes. Hopefully, we will see Emily Blunt in an intense role like “Sicario”. Taylor Swift and Lady Gaga will continue ruling.
So, expect 2024 to be lacquered with blistering elections, continuing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, eroding democracies and inflation.
2024 is a leap year. Patricia, my soulmate, was born on February 29. She is planning a rollicking party. However, she says, “Only if there are cease fires in Ukraine and Gaza.” Good girl. That’s why I love her.
Happy New Year!
rkaneja@anejamanagement.com
(The writer is a Mumbai-based management consultant. Views expressed are personal)
