E-Paper
Punjab pounded by 41% excess monsoon rain, IMD admits forecast lapse
As to Punjab specifically, the special weather report released by IMD on Tuesday revealed that the state received 41% above rainfall during monsoon, which ended in the country on Tuesday
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday admitted that the forecast for the northwest region, including Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, for the monsoon season was not exact.
The IMD is the country’s national agency for meteorology and weather services that forecasts and issues warnings for heavy rains and other weather events.
The IMD – in its second long-range forecast issued on May 27 – had issued a forecast that the northwest region would receive normal to above normal rainfall. However, the region — contrary to the forecast — received 27% excess rainfall, highest since 2001.
As to Punjab specifically, the special weather report released by IMD on Tuesday revealed that the state received 41% above rainfall during monsoon, which ended in the country on Tuesday. Punjab received 621 mm rainfall against the Long Period Average (LPA) of 439.8 mm.
With the highest rainfall during the monsoon season since 1995 and ninth highest since 1901, Punjab had to experience one of the deadliest floods, killing nearly 60 people and destroying thousands of acres of agricultural land.
“Except for northwest India, actual rainfall over central India, northeast India, south peninsula and monsoon core zone seasonal prediction for homogeneous regions during the season was within the range of the forecast,” said IMD in a statement on Tuesday.
When asked about the anomaly in the forecast, Surender Paul, director, IMD Chandigarh, said, “The topography and geography of the northwest region is very different. The region has a very distinct climate as plains and Himalayas are very close. Therefore, it is difficult to issue an exact forecast. Hence, there are always chances of deviations. Moreover, the behaviour of the monsoon weather systems during the monsoon season also plays a role.”
Notably, Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann had blamed “off-the-mark” predictions made by IMD for the devastating floods in the state. Winding up the discussion on the first day of the special assembly session, Mann had said all forecasts made by IMD were irrelevant and far from the truth.
He had mentioned that the prediction for August 17 was 9 mm rain, whereas actual rainfall reached 185.5 mm — representing an increase of 1961%. On August 25, the state recorded 676% more rainfall than predicted, and on August 26, it was 906% in excess. He had said this raised serious question marks over IMD’s credibility.
