Covid spike raises fears of fresh wave in Delhi

The seven-day average of daily cases, also known as the case trajectory, in the Capital touched 322 on Thursday — it had dropped to 125 for the week ending February 12, which was the lowest in eight months.

The Capital on Thursday reported 409 new infections of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), the highest single-day increase in cases in over two months, or since January 9, prompting experts to warn that yet another wave of the viral disease appears to be on the horizon in the city.

With Thursday’s addition, the total number infections in Delhi stands at 642,439, while three new deaths pushed the death toll to 10,934, according to the Delhi’s government’s Covid-19 bulletin. (AP)

Health experts expressed alarm over the resurgence of infections at a time when most curbs on social movement in the city have been lifted, and when people have let their guards down and stopped adhering to Covid-appropriate behaviour (including attending weddings and gatherings), despite a vast majority remaining vulnerable to the disease. They also warned about the drop in the testing rate and said the current situation in the Capital appeared akin to what happened in Mumbai and Maharashtra not too long ago – about two weeks ago, the western state saw a rise in cases, and is now in the midst of a full-blown Covid-19 wave.

Click here for full Covid-19 coverage

The seven-day average of daily cases, also known as the case trajectory, in the Capital touched 322 on Thursday — it had dropped to 125 for the week ending February 12, which was the lowest in eight months. This number has now been rising for 17 days in a row, something that last happened in mid-November last year, before the city brought its third wave of infections under control.

With Thursday’s addition, the total number infections in Delhi stands at 642,439, while three new deaths pushed the death toll to 10,934, according to the Delhi’s government’s Covid-19 bulletin.

At the Union health ministry’s Covid-19 briefing on Thursday, NITI Aayog member (health) VK Paul singled out Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) and cautioned authorities about letting down their guard. He said that Delhi, along with Gurugram, Faridabad and to an extent Gautam Buddh Nagar and Ghaziabad, is seeing a rise in positivity rate.

“We still have a huge population at risk of this virus. This pandemic is not yet over. Be vigilant… Today, using the force of vaccination, we are in a position to give a stronger fight (to the pandemic). We plead again, do not lower your guard and please embrace the vaccines that are available,” Paul said.

On average, 0.51% of all samples tested in Delhi in the past week have come back positive for Covid-19 (Thursday’s positivity rate was 0.59%). While this number is low in absolute terms (the World Health Organization recommends that the positivity rate from a region that has a comprehensive testing programme should be at or below 5%), the worrying trend is that is it again rising. The average positivity rate in the city had touched the lowest ever (0.21%) for the week ending February 10.

Testing, meanwhile, has dropped more than 20% from peak levels, data shows. In the past week, 65,599 samples have been tested every day in the city on average. This is despite Delhi government exhibiting that its testing capacity is much higher – at its peak, the city tested 83,151 a day for the week ending December 23, 2020.

Experts warned that warning signs like the rising positivity rate, drop in testing, and the complacency among people regarding Covid-appropriate behaviour indicates that a surge of infections may be on the horizon. They said the government needs to quickly expand the qualifying range for vaccinations before it is too late.

“When there is a fire somewhere, should we throw all the water we have at it or distribute it equally. What are the vaccines for? The government should vaccinate everyone over the age of 18 in the six states that have started seeing an increase in the number of cases. All the vaccines from other states should be diverted; the others can wait,” said Dr T Jacob John, former head of the department of virology at Christian Medical College, Vellore.

“These are the warning signs for another surge in the number of infections in Delhi; there is no doubt about that... The euphoria of having low number of cases in Delhi was short-lived because people have stopped following Covid-19 norms such as social distancing and masking. The antibody levels against Covid-19 wane off after about three months; but we still do not know how long does the protection against the disease last. And, a seroprevalence of 56% also means that there is still a large susceptible population... The situation is exactly like it was during Diwali when people were out and about attending weddings and gatherings, leading to a lot of asymptomatic spread of the virus,” said Dr GC Khilnani, former head of the department of pulmonary medicine at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences.

“There is always a risk of surge in cases in Delhi, we can clearly see this in other countries like the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as closer home like Maharashtra — all these regions have had to go back into lockdowns again,” Khilnani added.

Others added that increasing testing remains one of the only sure-shot ways to quickly isolate cases and stop transmission of the virus. “The government should ramp up testing to capacity now as that will help us in quickly identifying more people with the infection. If they are isolated and all their contacts are traced and tested, only then can we contain the spread of the infection. I believe that there is a need to trace and test as many as 15 to 20 contacts for each positive case,” said Dr Lalit Kant, former head of the department of epidemiology at the Indian Council of Medical Research.