Number Theory: Can the BJP break its Delhi jinx this time?

.

Can the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) dislodge the Aam Admi Party (AAP) from Delhi in these elections in what is essentially going to be a bipolar contest? An HT analysis of Delhi elections shows that the BJP will have to overcome not just its recent but also historical inability to win an assembly election in Delhi. AAP’s coming into the picture has only made the BJP’s challenge more difficult. Here are four charts which explain this in detail.

BJP supporters at a rally in New Delhi on Thursday. (Sanchit Khanna/ HT Photo) (Hindustan Times)

Can the BJP break its Delhi jinx this time?

• 
  BJP suffers from an entrenched disadvantage in Delhi assembly elections

  Delhi’s current phase of assembly elections started from 1993. While the BJP won a majority in the 1993 election, it has never been able to win any subsequent assembly election. On the other hand, the BJP has won a majority of Delhi’s seven parliamentary constituencies (PCs) in 8 out of 11 Lok Sabha elections since 1984, the first Lok Sabha election contested by the party. While vote share to seat share conversions are always treacherous in a first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, a look at vote share numbers shows that the BJP also has a clear disadvantage on this count in assembly elections in Delhi. This also means that while the BJP’s national leadership has had no problem convincing Delhi voters to vote for it, its BJP’s state leadership has been far less convincing on this front.
• 
  BJP’s dismal performance in the last two Delhi elections is more a reflection of AAP’s strength than its weakness

  Once again, the data is unambiguous here. BJP won 11.4% of the 70 assembly constituencies (ACs) in Delhi in the 2020 assembly elections with a vote share of 38.5%. BJP’s 2020 vote share is the second highest for the party in Delhi assembly elections. However, its seat share in Delhi was the second lowest in all assembly elections. What has basically happened in Delhi in the 2015 and 2020 elections is a sharp collapse in the BJP’s seat share to vote share ratio because the AAP crossed the 50% vote share mark in both these elections. In another words, the vote share bar for a winning candidate is now significantly higher than what BJP candidates have been getting.
• 
  Which is why the BJP is primarily banking on anti-incumbency

  If a party, in this case the AAP, the sitting on a vote share of more than 50%, the only thing which can make it lose an election is a desertion by its own voters. Will the AAP see such an exodus after spending ten years in power and will the BJP gain from this as the principal opposition party? The question will eventually boil down to the roughly 20% voters who switch between AAP and BJP in assembly and Lok Sabha elections. For example, AAP’s vote share of 54.3% in 2015 assembly elections plunged to just 18.1% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, it bounced back in a big way in the 2020 assembly elections, at the cost of both the BJP and even the Congress. While the BJP regained its dominance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it remains to be seen whether the AAP can replicate its 2020 bounce back once again in these elections. We will know the answer to this question on February 8 when the votes are counted.