Geographically, Kolkata and Lucknow are 1,000 kilometres apart; politically, their DNAs differ sharply. Ideally, a poll result in West Bengal should have no direct bearing on Uttar Pradesh, given the starkly different socio-religious cultures. Yet, as Uttar Pradesh moves toward its March 2027 assembly polls, there is a perception that the Bengal outcome could build the hawa in the heartland.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath shows a victory sign during a public meeting in Garbeta Assembly constituency, in Paschim Medinipur (@myogiadityanath X/FIle Photo)
UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s aggressive campaign in Bengal this year could have something to do with it, and his effort to promote his model of governance, which he said had transformed his state. If UP can be riot-free, so can Bengal, Yogi would declare at election meetings in Bengal, contending that there was anarchy, hooliganism, looting, appeasement, and riots in UP too before the BJP came to power in 2017.
To be sure, the TMC didn’t let the jibes go unanswered, warning voters that the chief minister was essentially advocating the import of UP’s bulldozer culture, a practice by state authorities to quickly demolish homes, businesses, and properties of people accused of crimes without following due process.
A Mamata Banerjee victory would not only cement her status as an unbeatable regional satrap who successfully stood up to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership and its government, but also bolster her credentials as a national-level leader.
For Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav, who shares a strong rapport with ‘Didi’, a confident Mamata would emerge as an undisputed strategist. It would also encourage Yadav to go hammer-and-tongs against Yogi’s brand of bulldozer politics.
The SP, which won 37 of the state’s 80 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and pushed the BJP down to 36, must maintain its momentum. A loss for the TMC in Bengal could dent the Opposition’s resuscitated confidence, especially following the recent setback in Bihar.
For the saffron brigade, capturing the TMC citadel would be the ultimate psychological boost before entering the UP arena. It would also boost Yogi Adityanath’s leadership and his brand of politics, silencing sceptics within the party.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has underlined the seriousness with which his party will have to contest UP, not only to win but also to avenge the 2024 verdict, when the BJP lost ground and had to lean on allies from Bihar and Andhra Pradesh to return to power in Delhi.
It is in this context that PM Modi launched his latest campaign from Varanasi, his Lok Sabha constituency, even before the second phase of polling in West Bengal on April 29. He addressed a women’s conference in the district where, despite massive demolition drives in Manikarnika Ghat and Dalmandi, voices remain largely in favour of a modern, congestion-free city, even at the cost of ancient historicity.
If the BJP succeeds in Bengal, Akhilesh Yadav would face the toughest challenge of his two-decade-long career. As it is, the Congress and the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party are already in shambles, and Yadav’s SP is the only prime challenger to the BJP in UP.
The Samajwadi Party, which hit rock bottom in 2017, when it had just 47 seats in the state assembly, has improved its performance since then in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the 2022 assembly polls, and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The SP party workers may be enthused about 2027 but a TMC setback in West Bengal would not augur well.
Unlike West Bengal, where the BJP has been navigating in hostile territory, the BJP retains the advantage of being the party in power in UP with the central and state machinery at its disposal. The power of Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) also remains a formidable tool that the Opposition, limited to promises, finds hard to match.
The ruling party can introduce schemes while the Opposition can only make promises, which are less alluring to voters.
Thus, what the BJP could do in Bihar, where it transferred ₹10,000 into bank accounts of the state’s women ahead of elections, it can do in Uttar Pradesh as well.
It could also mount a sharp offensive against the SP over the BJP’s unsuccessful attempt to get parliament to pass laws to fast-track the women’s 33% quota, painting the Opposition as anti-women, even though they opposed linking the women’s 33% quota to delimitation.
Akhilesh would seek to use the caste dynamics to his advantage, relying on the SP’s tested and tried PDA formula of consolidating backwards, Dalit, and Muslim voters.
For now, there is no sign of anti-incumbency against Yogi Adityanath after nine years in power.
After the Bengal outcome, the BJP may re-strategise its 2027 game plan, following Yogi’s polarising brand of politics, which could well be a combination of polarised caste, beneficiaries, and women.
E-Paper
