Voter Turnout: Will Lucknow soar or falter again?

The district administration is toiling hard to push Lucknow voters to breach the never achieved 60% polling mark, fearing it might dip again amidst a heatwave, rising temperatures, and an extended weekend on polling day.

LUCKNOW: As the polling date draws near, the district administration has vigorously initiated several voter turnout campaigns in collaboration with diverse sections of society. The pace of these campaigns is intense because the state capital had the lowest voter turnout across all 80 constituencies of the state in the previous general elections. In 2019, Lucknow recorded a 54.72% vote, which was around 4.49% less than the state average of 59.21%.

In the 1967 Lok Sabha polls, only 27.62% of Lucknow voters turned out to vote. (Sourced)

However, the 2019 voter turnout was slightly higher than in 2014, when only 53.02% of voters chose to vote. But when comparing the numbers from 2014 and 2019 to elections in the decade before that, the voter turnout shows an encouraging increase. In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the voter turnout was a meagre 35.28%, while in 2009 it was 37.49%. Undoubtedly, between 2004 and 2014, Lucknow’s voter turnout has shifted from being less than 40% to well above 50%.

The voters responded to the big-ticket political fervour of 2014, when anti-incumbency against the then UPA-2 government was at its peak, and BJP’s promise of ‘Ache Din’ was resonating. Similarly, in 2019, nationalism was a driving force after India conducted a surgical strike on Pakistan following the Pulwama terror attack.

Professor Manuka Khanna, head of the department of political science, Lucknow University said nationalism or other significant events that captured the people’s general imagination surely impacted voter turnout. This trend had been well observed from India’s first general election in 1951 to the recent past, she said.

The inaugural 1951 election had a relatively moderate voter turnout of 42.03%. Subsequent elections generally saw an upward trend, with the 1962 elections witnessing the highest turnout till then at 58.49%. This phenomenon was likely a reflection of the public’s mood during the India-China conflict era. However, in the years that followed, the people of Lucknow perhaps became less engaged in political discourse, leading to a significant drop in voter turnout. As the then-mighty Congress became embroiled in bitter internal party politics in the era after Jawaharlal Nehru and Lal Bahadur Shastri, people also lost interest.

In the 1967 Lok Sabha polls, only 27.62% of Lucknow voters turned out to vote. However, in 1971, the turnout significantly rose to above 46%, fueled by nationalist zeal during the India-Pakistan tensions over East Pakistan (present-day Bangladesh).

The desire to overthrow the Indira Government in the first election in 1977 after the emergency was evident in the decent voter turnout of 53.62%. However, as people soon became disappointed by the Janata Party government that came to power, the next election in 1980 saw disillusioned voters choosing to abstain from voting. Lucknow Lok Sabha recorded just 37.63% voting.

Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s assassination in 1984 resulted in a marginal increase to 40.30% in Lucknow. In the election where there was virtually no opposition to Congress, the results were clear even before the polls. The 1989 election was probably the worst in terms of voter turnout in Lucknow. The city recorded its lowest-ever voting percentage at a mere 28.65%.

In the decades of the 90s when Hindutva politics and caste-based identity politics dominated the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh, the polling percentage in the state capital remained close to 50%. However, it actually crossed the 50% mark only in 1996 when the charismatic Atal Bihari Vajpayee was pitched as a possible PM candidate. He went on to become the prime minister, but only for 13 days in his first stint.

The 1998 and 1999 elections also registered decent polling at 49.35% and 48.57%, respectively. A big reason was again Atal’s candidature and the city’s belief of having a prime minister as their MP.

By the time the 2004 Lok Sabha polls came, Lucknow’s voters had probably again lost the zeal. As BJP’s India Shining campaign failed to resonate, Atal’s last contest saw a big dip in voter numbers compared to the 1999 polls. The trend of well less than 40% voter turnout witnessed in 2004 also continued in 2009, only to be lifted above 50% in 2014.

The challenge, therefore, is whether Lucknow can breach the never-achieved mark of 60% voter turnout this time around. Amidst hopes, the fear is that the city of Nawab does not dive down again, as often witnessed in the past. The less-than-previous turnout in the first two phases, coupled with rising temperatures and heatwaves, and considering that the polling day of May 20th is a Monday, which might extend the weekend for some, has raised concerns.