Covid-19 case positivity rate on rise in Mumbai; daily rate stands at 7.39%

On Thursday, the city saw 1,509 new cases and 4 deaths, taking tally to 338,643 and toll to 11,519; fatality rate stands at 3.40%.

With the city reporting more than 1,000 new cases of Covid-19 daily of late, the single-day positivity rate has increased from 3-4% in February to 5-7% in the last 10 days. The daily positivity rate on Thursday was 7.39%.

A health worker administers Covid-19 vaccine at Rajawadi Hospital in Mumbai on Thursday. (Pratik Chorge/HT Photo)

Overall, 3.5 million tests have been conducted in Mumbai and the positivity rate is 9.64%. The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) said the spike in cases is due mostly to increased testing and citizens not following Covid protocol.

On Thursday, the city reported 1,509 new cases of Covid-19, taking the tally to 338,643, and four deaths. The death toll stands at 11,519, with fatality rate of 3.40%. There are 10,563 active cases and the city’s recovery rate is 93.21%. The highest growth rates in the city are in Mulund, Andheri (West), Vile Parle, Bandra, Khar, Dadar and Wadala. While Mumbai’s average growth rate is 0.34%, these neighbourhoods have growth rates between 0.51% and 0.40%.

According to BMC, on March 9, Mumbai’s daily positivity rate was 7.12%, which is significantly higher than the February rates. On February 28, the positivity rate was 5.19%. It was 4.87% on February 19 and 3.33% on February 10. The number of tests conducted daily in Mumbai now ranges between 18,000 and 23,000. In January and February, the range was between 12,000 and 17,000 tests.

BMC said 90% of the detected cases are from high-rise buildings. On March 10, there were 228 sealed buildings and 2,815 sealed floors in the city followed by 27 containment zones. On February 26, there were 127 sealed buildings, 1,849 sealed floors and 12 containment zones.

Assistant municipal commissioner of Mulund, Kishore Gandhi said, “Currently, there is no plan to have any mini lockdown or night curfew, but we are implementing the existing restrictions strictly.” Mulund’s growth rate is the highest in Mumbai.

BMC officials said that rather than the resumption of local trains, the spike in cases is due to people attending large gatherings and not following Covid-19 norms. “Though Nagpur — which will go under one week of lockdown from Monday — is reporting cases equal to that of Mumbai, there is an assumption that Mumbai’s situation might not be like the September peak. The sero prevalence level of those residing in Mumbai is higher compared to those in Nagpur or other rural belts of the city where cases are increasing,” said a BMC official.

On Tuesday, municipal commissioner Iqbal Singh Chahal had told HT that no lockdown or micro-containment zones were expected in the city. However, chief minister Uddhav Thackeray hinted at a lockdown on Thursday when he said, “In a few days, we may have to lockdown some places. We may have to start from scratch, but still the situation has not gone out of control.”

Experts say lockdown might not be the solution since economic activities need to resume. “We might announce a lockdown,” said city physician Dr Siddarth Paliwal, “but this will come with a cost if we do not speed up the process of vaccination.”

On Monday, the state Covid-19 task force had suggested allowing door-to-door vaccination for the elderly to increase the number of people vaccinated daily. BMC has authorised private vaccination centres to operate round the clock. On Thursday, 29,264 people were vaccinated at 72 centres, of which 29,262 were senior citizens and 4,004 were above the age of 45 years with comorbidities. Overall, 190,294 senior citizens and 23,044 people above 45 years with comorbidities have been vaccinated.