Flailing Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP)’s outreach plan ahead of local body polls

Party insiders told HT that a weakened NCP (SP) is quite akin to Sena (UBT) at the moment; and hence it needs to join hands with NCP, especially before the local polls

MUMBAI/ PUNE: Reunion buzz among two factions of the state’s once powerful parties – the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) -- is gathering pace in anticipation of elections to 687 urban and rural local bodies later this year. The Shiv Sena (UBT) has been reaching out to Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray while NCP (SP) is attempting to reconnect with its breakaway faction led by deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar.

On the other hand, recently a couple of meetings between NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar, and his nephew and head of NCP Ajit Pawar at public and private platforms stoked reunion rumours (HT ARRrchives)

The speculations over a reunion between the Thackeray cousins – Raj and Uddhav – started after the former’s remarks in a podcast with filmmaker Mahesh Manjrekar last month. In the interview, Raj said he could work with Uddhav “in the interest of Maharashtra” which led the latter to express that he was willing “to set aside minor disputes” if the MNS chief stopped associating with “those who were working against Maharashtra”.

While there has been no word from Raj since, Uddhav faction’s leaders intermittently insist that Shiv Sena (UBT) is keen on the reunion.

On the other hand, recently a couple of meetings between NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar, and his nephew and head of NCP Ajit Pawar at public and private platforms – Pune’s Vasantdada Sugar Institute and at the engagement ceremony of Ajit’s son Jay – stoked reunion rumours, which gained strength when Pawar senior told media persons in Pune last week that a section of leaders in his party were keen to join forces with the Ajit-led faction, and that the ball was in his daughter Supriya Sule’s court for a final call.

The pull and push between both factions are likely to become heightened, as on May 6, a two-member bench of the Supreme Court directed the state election commission (SEC) to hold long-pending elections to the local bodies in the next four months. It means elections for urban and rural local bodies, including 29 municipal corporations and 32 district councils, could be held after the monsoon. Touted as “mini-assembly polls” the forthcoming elections will reveal if the ruling Mahayuti still enjoys the support of the people or the opposition parties are bouncing back after suffering a severe setback in the last assembly elections.

As the outcome of the local polls will have a significant impact on state politics, Shiv Sena chief and deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde, and Ajit Pawar are aggressively poaching from their rival factions. Not to be left behind, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is also mopping up leaders to strengthen areas where their presence is weak.

In the 2017 civic election, when he led a unified Shiv Sena, Uddhav Thackeray won 84 seats in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC); but in the last two years, since the split in the party, 42 of his former corporators defected to Shinde camp. Thackeray faction leaders feel unity between the cousins will rouse emotions among workers and the electorate leading to a possible positive outcome in the local body elections.

“One third of Mumbai’s voter-base is Marathi, likewise in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). The brothers coming together will be nothing short of a spectacle and a great unique selling point,” said a Sena (UBT) MP, admitting that “things are not looking great in both Sena (UBT) and MNS as they stand apart”.

The political arithmetic, he said, would also mean a setback for Shinde who has positioned himself as the leader of the “real” Shiv Sena, and is trying to work an alliance with Raj on the side to lend more authenticity to his party. The leader added, that apart from BMC, this alliance will help the party swing the numbers in Thane, Navi Mumbai, KDMC, Ulhasnagar, Nashik, Jalgaon, Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar and parts of western Maharashtra, such as Solapur.

Senior Sena (UBT) leader and an Uddhav aide, Anil Parab, said on Wednesday: “Our leader is open to an alliance with MNS to protect the interest of Marathi people and Mumbai. If the brothers reunite, Marathi votes will be saved from splitting.”

Sharad Pawar’s remark about a reunion came at a time when defections from the party were picking up. Ajit Pawar recently inducted five former MLAs from his uncle’s party, including former minister Gularbao Deokar. The undivided NCP was once a dominant force across western Maharashtra’s urban and rural bodies. Now the Pawar-led faction is struggling to hold its flock together.

Party insiders told HT that a weakened NCP (SP) is quite akin to Sena (UBT) at the moment; and hence it needs to join hands with NCP, especially before the local polls.

At least four sitting MLAs from NCP (SP) have supported the idea of a merger, one of them Uttam Jankar. The issue was also raised in a meeting called by the party’s state president Jayant Patil in Mumbai on Wednesday. At least two leaders -- party spokesperson Ankush Kakade and youth wing president Mehboob Shaikh – have purportedly demanded clarity from the leadership on the possible merger. In the meeting, Patil also discussed the local body polls.

Kakade said, “The buzz has created confusion in the party. I told the leadership to clear its stand. There is growing disillusionment among the cadres. I’ve also submitted a report to the leadership specifically about the Pune unit. If there is a merger on the table, it must be addressed transparently.”

Earlier on Tuesday, in a meeting with ministers and legislators, Ajit Pawar had clarified that no talks were on between the two factions. “Ajitdada made this very clear. He was of the view that Pawar saheb may have made the statement to stop desertions from his party as several of their leaders keen to join us,” a senior party leader said.

In its last term, the undivided NCP had 39 corporators in Pune; over 30 of those are in the Ajit camp now. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, where the NCP once held 36 of 128 seats, nearly all are with Ajit Pawar.

On the other hand, some NCP (SP) loyalists say they will remain firm in their saddle. “I have firmly stood by my leader and my father. He made it clear that he is with the Opposition parties. My stand is the same,” Sule told HT last week. Senior leader Anil Deshmukh said on Wednesday: “The debate is only in the media. It has no bearing in reality.”

Meanwhile, Raj Thackeray has kept the guessing game on. After the initial comment on Manjrekar’s podcast, he has not made further remarks on the matter of the reunion. Significantly, as senior Sena leader and industries minister Uday Samant met Raj at the latter’s residence on Tuesday – his fourth visit in two months – buzz is that Raj has kept his option for a possible alliance open.

Commenting on the back-room talks, political analyst Hemant Desai said: “The overtures or adjustments by both Pawar and Thackeray seem more like political manoeuvring in the situation after the setback they received in last year’s assembly elections. They have to keep their flock together.”

He added, “Uddhav needs an alliance with Raj for the Mumbai elections. Pawar, on the other hand, has taken a reconciliatory approach towards the BJP government at the Centre which seems to be his political necessity. In Maharashtra, his actions could be related to local calculations. He won’t go with BJP but may have adjustments with his nephew.”