Is Mumbai underreporting its Covid-19 casualties?

In the first three months of 2021, between January and March, 23,114 deaths (overall) have been reported in the city. Of this, only 579 were recorded as Covid deaths, so there were 22,535 non-Covid-19 deaths

In Mumbai, 11,125 people died of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in 2020. However, as the number of non-Covid-19 deaths also increased significantly in 2020, which raises doubts whether Mumbai is underreporting deaths due to the viral infection.

Representational Image. (HT file photo)

In 2019, the city reported 91,223 deaths, which went up to 112,603 in 2020 (a 23% increase), the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation’s (BMC) data revealed.

If we subtract Covid-19 deaths from 2020’s overall toll of 112,603, the city saw 101,478 non-Covid deaths in 2020, a significant spike from 2019 (91,223 deaths) and 2018 (88,858 deaths).

This means that there was a 2% spike in non-Covid deaths from 2018 to 2019, and an 11.24% leap from 2019 to 2020. Also, in the first three months of 2021, between January and March, overall 23,114 deaths have been reported in the city. Of this, only 579 were recorded as Covid deaths, so there were 22,535 non-Covid deaths.

The city’sofficial Covid-19 toll, from March 2020 up to March 31 this year, was 11,704. The city reported its first coronavirus case on March 11, 2020, and the first death due to it was on March 17 the same year.

BMC officials maintain there is no underreporting of Covid-19 deaths. Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner of the BMC, said, “I will have to check the data and analyse it in order to comment on it. However, the situation was different in 2020, compared to 2019, as several citizens came to Mumbai for treatment as hospitals in the neighbouring cities were closed due to lockdown. Hence, these deaths also got registered in Mumbai. Another factor is also of people probably delaying their treatment due to Covid-19 fear.”

Earlier, in May 2021, Leader of Opposition in the state, Devendra Fadnavis, alleged that the civic body was underreporting Covid-19 deaths. He said some Covid-19 fatalities were shown as deaths due to other reasons, thus suppressing the real toll of the viral infection.

However, the BMC termed his allegations baseless. It issued a statement stating that Covid-19 testing and recording of deaths due to the infection were being done as per the criteria laid down by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). It added that it was committed towards “mission zero”, which aims to bring the Covid-19 situation under control step-by-step.

Further, according to BMC’s data, a comparison of March 2021, when the city was witnessing a second wave, with that of the previous years, showed an increase of 5.59%. In March 2021, the city reported 7,554 deaths, compared to 7,154 in March 2020 and 7,155 in March 2019. However, all the data of 2020 provided by the BMC is provisional data.

Meanwhile, overall, in 2020, the city’s progressive figures of Covid-19 stood at 294,067 cases, 11,125 deaths, meaning a death rate of 3.78%, and a recovery rate of 93.20% (274,072 recoveries).

In the current context, the death rate, as of June 13, 2021, stands at 2.11%, with 15,183 deaths and 716,579 cases. Further, the recovery rate is 95.36% with 683,382 recoveries.