Mumbai may see Covid third wave in September; BMC in prep mode

The third wave is likely to hit the city as late as in September, according to the projections of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC)

The third wave is likely to hit the city as late as in September, according to the projections of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). While preparing for a larger number of Covid-19 cases in the city during the anticipated third wave, in comparison to the second wave, the BMC said it will scale Covid beds by over 10,000, and is in the process of setting up 16 oxygen plants across the city.

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Additional jumbo facilities are being set up at Malad, Kanjurmarg, Sion, and Mahalaxmi. While mathematical projects have not been made for cases in the third wave, the civic administration said it is prepared to handle double the number of cases in comparison to the numbers seen in March, April, and May 2021 (second wave). Currently, the bed occupancy is as low as 10% to 20% on some days.

Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner in-charge of BMC’s public health department, said, “The number of Covid cases during the second wave were almost twice more than those during the first wave. However, these are mathematical projections, if we are to assume the same in case of the third wave. BMC is preparing for worst case scenario, and ramping up its infrastructure urgently, stocking up medicines needed for critical care, and ramping up its oxygen production, and supply network. It is likely the third wave could hit around September, if we go by past trends post gradual unlock.”

According to experts, the first wave hit between May and September 2020, which saw highest active cases at above 34,000, in Mumbai. The total number of covid-19 cases reported during this period in Mumbai was 200,559, according to data from the state government. The second wave started by the end of February 2021, experts say, and has lasted until now. According to BMC, highest active cases during this period crossed 90,000, and the total Covid-19 cases reported in Mumbai during this time were 391,255, according to data from the state government.

Through the course of one year, BMC set up centralised bed management system, tightened the micro containment policies. The shortage of ambulances felt during the first wave was dealt with by allotting five ambulances to each ward, by the end of the first wave itself.

A presentation was made by the state health department to Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray on Wednesday, which stated Maharashtra should prepare for a scenario where Covid cases double, during the third wave.

Dr Rahul Pandit, a member of the state Covid task force said, “Most models predict waves come in about 100 days. But models don’t talk about real-life scenario. We need to be prepared for the worst case scenario, assuming everything in the city opens up tomorrow itself, and we see a rise in covid cases. The meeting discussed Maharashtra’s preparedness to handle a surge in covid cases, assuming the worst case scenario.”

According to experts, the civic administration was able to carry forward learnings in handling Covid-19 outbreak from the first wave to the second. This led to more scientific understanding of the spread of Covid-19, understanding of medical management and line of treatment, and which is the high-risk group. Dr Pandit said, “The administration did much more proactive work during the second wave. Similarly, for the third wave, Mumbai needs to learn from the second wave. We need to prepare for the worst, ramp up oxygen capacity, stock up on lifesaving drugs and start with dedicated testing in hotspot clusters.”