‘NDA prospects in state brighter after Ram temple and Ajit defection’

Internal surveys by the ruling BJP and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra show an improvement in their electoral prospects for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The opening of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and Ajit Pawar's joining the state government have contributed to this boost. The ruling alliance is projected to win around 30 seats, a significant improvement from their previous surveys. The consolidation of votes is expected to increase further with the cracks in opposition alliances. However, the ruling alliance is concerned about tension between Marathas and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and plans to take corrective measures to ensure the support of traditional party voters.

MUMBAI: Internal surveys by the ruling BJP and Shiv Sena have projected an improvement in their Lok Sabha electoral prospects following the opening of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and Ajit Pawar’s joining the state government by engineering a split in the NCP. The three ruling parties are projected to win around 30 seats, a significant improvement over the 20 to 22 seats projected in their surveys in May-June 2023.

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BJP insiders said that the consolidation of votes would go up further in the wake of the cracks in state and national opposition alliances, particularly Nitish Kumar’s defection. Ruling alliance leaders that more key opposition leaders would jump ship before the LS poll and terminally weaken the opposition in the state.

Although the ruling alliance is worried about the tension between Marathas and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) after the state government’s draft notification allowing Marathas to reap the benefits of the OBC quota, a leader said that “corrective steps” would be taken to ensure that traditional party voters were not “disturbed”.

“After the Ajit Pawar faction joined the government with over 40 MLAs, we upped our tally by at least four seats in western Maharashtra where we seemed to be lagging behind,” said a senior BJP leader who is part of the election management team. “After the projection of a poor performance in Maharashtra six months ago, we took corrective measures, the inducing of the Ajit Pawar faction into the ruling alliance being a vital part of it.”

The leader said that the recent inauguration of the Ram temple had helped the government further consolidate its vote share in the state. “The three ruling parties could win over 30 seats—twenty of these by the BJP and the other ten or so by the Shinde Sena and Ajit NCP jointly,” he said. This has been reflected in our assessment, though the formal survey reports are yet to be compiled.”

Another party leader said that the Lok Sabha elections would be fought with Modi as the face and mascot. “Even in 2019, when the BJP and undivided Sena fought the election together, the votes polled by the Sena were 3.5 million more than those they got in the assembly polls later that year,” he said. “This means Modiji is the undisputed face, with the opposition having no equivalent. The Ram Mandir opening was a show totally grabbed by him.”

A top leader from the Shinde camp revealed that the party surveys mostly emphasised the weaker seats for the party and alliance, and the preliminary reports showed an improvement in their prospects. “Seats like Baramati, Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, Satara, Osmanabad, Kolhapur and Nanded are among the difficult seats for the alliance but the recent assessment has projected a better atmosphere for us,” he said.

Mumbai-based political analyst Hemant Desai said that Ajit’s defection and the event management by the BJP during the Ram Mandir opening would help the ruling alliance. “Before Ajit’s rebellion, the alliance was in poor condition with a projected tally of 18 seats,” he said. “As for the Ram mandir, the BJP has been trying to keep sentiments high, and will take them to a peak until Ram Navami, which falls in the middle of the election process (on April 17), which will clearly benefit the party. The tussle between Marathas and OBCs could be a cause of concern but the BJP will take steps to turn the tide in its favour. The UPA’s failure to put up a united show will play in favour of the NDA alliance in Maharashtra too.”

The BJP’s Maharashtra vice-president Madhav Bhandari said that though the results of post-Ram Mandir surveys were yet to come in, the position of the ruling alliance had “improved robustly”. “We can now achieve our target of 45 seats,” he said. “Nitish Kumar’s joining the NDA will help us in all the states, including Maharashtra.”

According to Bhandari, Nitish Kumar’s decision to jump ship had exposed the “fault line in the INDIA coalition”. “A similar situation prevails in the opposition combine in Maharashtra too,” he said. “Forget about coordination within the opposition, it doesn’t exist even within the Maharashtra Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar NCP. This will definitely go in our favour.”