Poll for Maharashtra Assembly speaker: Time for another MVA-BJP fight?

The political stage in the state is likely to witness another tussle between the ruling Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition and opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, following the resignation of Nana Patole as the speaker of the Maharashtra Assembly

The political stage in the state is likely to witness another tussle between the ruling Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition and opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, following the resignation of Nana Patole as the speaker of the Maharashtra Assembly.

The MVA leaders are strategising to get in 170-plus votes for the election, which can also end the speculation over its survival. (HT Photo)

While there are speculations that the BJP aims to turn the election for a new speaker into an opportunity to pull down the 14-month-old Uddhav Thackeray-led government, the three-party coalition is gearing up to use the election to its advantage. The MVA leaders are strategising to get in 170-plus votes for the election, which can also end the speculation over its survival.

Patole resigned as the speaker after the Congress leadership decided to appoint him as the new chief of the Maharashtra Congress. This has necessitated election for a new speaker which also means another test of strength for the MVA on the floor of the Assembly. In 2019, when it won the trust vote and Patole was elected, the MVA had managed to get 169 votes in the house of 288. While the three parties together have 154 MLAs, the coalition managed to get at least 15 votes from smaller parties and independents. Although the leaders of Shiv Sena and NCP would have preferred Patole’s resignation towards the end of the budget session after completion of presenting and passing the annual budget, the Congress chose to do it immediately. After initial reactions to convey their unhappiness with the decision of the Congress, the two partners have now accepted it and the three parties are looking at showing its strength on the floor of the house. The parties are confident that none of their 154 MLAs would vote against the MVA candidate and are now working on a plan to get support from most of the 29 MLAs from smaller parties and the independents, according to the MVA leaders HT spoke to. In the house of 288, the MVA has 154 members, while the BJP has 105.

“Of the 29 MLAs from smaller parties and independents, 15 voted for us a year ago. They continue to support us. We will now try and win over some more. For instance, the Communist Party of India which has one MLA and AIMIM with two MLAs had abstained from voting during the confidence motion on November 30, 2019. We are sure in the backdrop of the changed political scenario, they will support us. We have supported the left parties during the farmers’ agitation, while AIMIM cannot politically afford to take a stand favourable to the BJP. “Rashtriya Samaj Paksha MLA Ratnakar Gutte is expected to change side after the recent Enforcement Directorate action against him,” said a senior NCP minister requesting anonymity. The leader said that though some of the BJP MLAs are in touch with the ruling parties, they are unlikely to cross over soon.

“We will get about 175 votes. I do not think the BJP will go for the vote as many independents and smaller parties are on the verge of changing sides,” said NCP minister Nawab Malik.

Former state Congress chief Manikarao Thakre said, “We can cross the mark of 170 MLAs as more independents are willing to support us. It is easier to garner support when you are in power. There are many incidents from the past when the ruling parties had fallen short of numbers than claimed during floor tests. The BJP did not even go for the election of speaker despite our demand after the 2014 election, when it was in minority.”

The MVA leaders are also deliberating whether to hold the election immediately after the budget session of the state legislature begins on March 1 or towards the end of the session. “There is no hurry to hold the election immediately after the session begins. We have a deputy speaker to run the house. The elections will be held only after we manage to get more support,” said a Shiv Sena minister.

Besides its own strength of 154 MLAs (comprising 58 Sena MLAs, NCP 56 and Congress 44), the ruling alliance garnered the support of 15 members from smaller parties and independents. Three MLAs from Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, two each from Samajwadi Party and Prahar Janashakti Paksha and one each from Swabhimani Paksha, Peasants and Workers Party, Krantikari Sanghatana and five independents had supported the government. BJP, the prime opposition party with 105 members received the support of two smaller allies and seven independents.

Floor test and squabbling within the MVA

However, the MVA’s plan to show strength on the floor of the assembly is easier said than done. Several MVA leaders point out they cannot take all their legislators for granted. The ruling coalition will have to first ensure that its strength of 169 which was seen in trust vote in 2019 is retained. “Any drop in this number would help the BJP to create an atmosphere that we are losing support and there is political uncertainty,” said the Shiv Sena minister.

Though the confidence vote was won by MVA government in an open poll, the speaker is elected by secret ballot which could be a challenging job for the ruling parties as it gives a chance for cross-voting by MLAs. “Rule 6(3) of state legislative mandates for the secret ballots for the post of the speaker. Though we have a tradition of the unopposed election of the speaker, the opposition may ask for the poll. The poll is held on the floor of the house and the members vote on ballot paper,” said Anant Kalse, former principal secretary of state legislature.

Congress’s alliance partners want a say in deciding the next speaker. To force Congress to do so, both the allies are saying that the post is open for negotiation in power-sharing formula. To counter it, the Congress is putting forth a demand for deputy chief minister’s post. NCP chief Sharad Pawar said the post has been left vacant to decide by all three ruling parties over the new speaker.

Shiv Sena mouthpiece Saamana’s editorial last week raised the question why should Congress give a chance to BJP to play tricks. The editorial said that the chair of speaker was conceded for five years and not to leave it vacant in just one year.

This prompted Congress to toss the idea of reshuffle in sharing of the power and demanded for the post of deputy chief minister by creating an extra post for them. Thakre said that there should be an additional deputy chief minister from Congress. “It has been our demand even during the talks with our ruling partners before forming the government,” Thakre said.

According to Congress leaders, before appointing Patole as the new state unit chief by asking him to resign as the speaker, Congress’s interim president Sonia Gandhi spoke to Pawar and Shiv Sena chief and chief minister Uddhav Thackeray. Patole and senior Congress leaders in the state met Thackeray and deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar at Sahyadri guest house before handing over his resignation to deputy speaker Narhari Zirwal on February 4.

Political analyst Hemant Desai said, “The ruling parties appear confident over the past few days. The Shiv Sena had fared well in gram panchayat elections while the three-party combine emerged triumphant in legislative council elections two months ago.”

There are also speculations that the ruling and opposition sides would avoid a bitter tussle and settle for election of new speaker without actual vote on the floor of the assembly. Senior BJP leader and former speaker Haribhau Bagde said: “Many a times the Speaker is appointed unopposed but it all depends on the relations between the treasury and opposition benches. Our stand on the election will be decided according to the situation at that time.”