Maharashtra polls: Vidarbha, MMR-Konkan likely to be decisive for Mahayuti and MVA
Though the MVA has a lead, there is less than 1 percent difference between the coalitions – MVA received 43.71 percent votes while Mahayuti got 43.55 percent
MUMBAI: While it’s likely to be a close contest between the ruling and opposition coalitions in Maharashtra in the assembly elections, two regions – Vidarbha and the Konkan-Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) – could decide final equation. Strategists from the Mahayuti as well as Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) have opined that the fight over 62 seats in Vidarbha and 75 in the MMR-Konkan belt may indicate which way the scales would be tipped.
Leaders of both camps have pulled out the numbers from the recent Lok Sabha elections to plan their way forward.
The MVA won 30 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra while the ruling Mahayuti bagged 17 in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. Congress rebel Vishal Patil won a seat as an independent but later pledged allegiance to the Congress. Though the scales had tipped in favour of the MVA, there was less than one percent difference between the two coalitions – MVA received 43.71 percent votes while Mahayuti got 43.55 percent.
Each Lok Sabha constituency consists of six assembly segments. The MVA was leading in 150-odd segments while the Mahayuti in about 125. A BJP leader who is also on the party’s strategy team, said, sops like the Ladki Bahin Yojana the party’s efforts to reach out to micro-communities, will help them breach the gap of “the 30-odd seats between us and MVA”. He added, the rest depends on “caste combination, campaign and the ground level management”.
“That’s why we are focussing on regions we did well in Lok Sabha to strengthen our chances there,” he said.
Tracking numbers
Of all regions, Vidarbha has the highest assembly seats, followed by western Maharashtra (58). Marathwada has 46 seats while north Maharashtra has 47. Konkan region, including Thane, has 39 seats while Mumbai has 36 assembly constituencies.
In Lok Sabha, the opposition MVA fared well in all regions except Konkan and MMR, outside Mumbai – the ruling alliance won five out of six seats while MVA could win only one seat. In Mumbai, the MVA won four while Mahayuti bagged two seats.
In Vidarbha, MVA won seven out of 10 seats, and seven out of eight seats in Marathwada. The Mahayuti won three in Vidarbha and one in Marathwada, with the high-pitched Maratha agitation in the air. In western Maharashtra, the MVA won six out of 10 while Mahayuti bagged four. Out of eight seats in north Maharashtra, six were won by MVA and two by BJP in Mahayuti.
The opposition coalition also dominated Mumbai by winning four out of six seats, with the remaining two going to BJP and Shiv Sena. Five districts of Konkan-MMR (excluding Mumbai) which have six seats was the only belt that Mahayuti dominated. It won five out of six seats.
Mahayuti Vs MVA
Mahayuti strategists feel MVA will continue to have an upper hand in Marathwada, backed by the impact of Maratha reservation, and western Maharashtra thanks to Sharad Pawar’s equity.
North Maharashtra is likely to see a mixed trend since tribal voters are unhappy with the Dhangars who are looking for a stake in the scheduled tribe category. The MVA won the Nandurbar ST reserved constituency in Lok Sabha election.
The BJP is hoping for a better show in Vidarbha which was once its stronghold; it is also confident of winning majority of seats in five districts of MMR-Konkan where it won five out of six Lok Sabha seats, say insiders. These districts are Thane, chief minister Eknath Shinde’s stronghold, Palghar, Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg.
In the past, the united Shiv Sena had a strong base in this region – the coastal Konkan has supported the party for three decades. But the emotional connect failed to transfer to the Thackeray-led Sena (UBT), which lost all the five seats it had contested here.
Sena (UBT) MP and spokesperson Arvind Sawant said the party’s Lok Sabha performance in the region is unlikely to be repeated this time as “people from Konkan will not support attempts to end the party formed by late Balasaheb Thackeray; it will be evident when our campaign begins”.
On Vidarbha, state Congress chief spokesperson Atul Londhe Patil underscored, “The assembly election will be a bigger shock for BJP as discontent is brewing among farmers, youths and various other sections. MVA will take a decisive lead in Vidarbha, if not the entire state.”
Shiv Sena spokesperson Krishna Hegde said, the ruling coalition will “do well in Konkan-MMR belt and Vidarbha, thanks to the many welfare schemes launched by the Mahayuti government”.
“Even in the case of Marathwada, the opinion of people has changed after chief minister Shinde responded to the demands made by Maratha outfits,” he added.
Mumbai-based political analyst Abhay Deshpande, said, “Vidarbha was once a BJP stronghold but its electoral arithmetic there seems to be disturbed. The DMK (Dalit, Muslim, Kunbi) factor helped Congress in Lok Sabha and it will continue to favour the MVA. However, in past few months the BJP has made efforts to reach different caste groups. Its success in the region will depend on its outcome and the impact of populist schemes.”