Ghaziabad: Death count 3.5 times in second Covid wave

An analysis by the Ghaziabad health department found that although the total number of Covid-19 cases in the first and second wave of infections were more or less similar, deaths increased two to five times in different age groups

An analysis by the Ghaziabad health department found that although the total number of Covid-19 cases in the first and second wave of infections were more or less similar, deaths increased two to five times in different age groups.

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The department considered the first wave to be from March 1 last year to March 31 of this year. The second wave was considered to be from April 31 to June 18.

The analysis also confirmed what experts had long been saying - children were less severely affected. It also confirmed that the elderly was particularly vulnerable, and experts say this further pushed the need to vaccinate them on priority.

The analysis

In the first wave, the district accounted for 27,671 cases over 395 days, the second wave saw 27,849 over 78.

Two children under 10 years of age died during the first wave, but the second wave had none and also saw fewer cases. Even those between 11 and 20 years had no deaths during both waves.

From then on, the mortality rates -number of deaths per 100 cases- kept increasing. Those who were 60 years and above suffered the most with their mortality rate being 1.19% of the 3,354 cases during the first wave and 4.76% of 2,962 cases in the second wave.

The overall mortality during the first wave was about 0.37%, while it was 1.28% in the second.

And although more males died in both waves, which is consistent with previous research that said men were more likely to contract a severe form of the disease due to their lifestyle and higher levels of ACE-2 receptors that the virus uses to enter the cells, the mortality rate of females was higher.

Health dept’s plan for a 3rd wave

Based on such data and comments from experts, the district expects the third wave to run on similar lines.

“Although we are preparing for any likelihood of the next wave, we expect children not be affected then too. They have shown better immunity, while routine immunisation also helped them against many viruses. The closure of schools and colleges has also helped,” said Dr Rakesh Gupta, district surveillance officer.

“The severity of infection was high during the second wave and majority of fatalities took place during the short span in months of April and May this year. It was due to pneumonitis and involvement of lungs which affected about 80% patients during the second wave. Majority of patients were referred to L2 or L3 category hospitals due to severity of infection and demand for ICU beds also soared,” said Dr NK Gupta, chief medical officer. “Children in from 0 to 10 years showed resilience. Still, keeping in mind the possibility of a third wave, we have started preparations with paediatric ICUs in different hospitals and even new oxygen plants are getting installed for medical supplies to serve all ages.”

Uttar Pradesh has a three-tier Covid health care system with L1 for mild case, L2 for moderate and L3 for severe cases.

Dr Ashish Agarwal, president of Indian Medical Association (Ghaziabad), said that although data suggested that children were less affected, it may not have taken into account asymptomatic cases that were not confirmed through tests.

“From our experience, we can say that more children were affected during the second wave and many of them were asymptomatic. In any case, in the event of a third wave, it is not only children who may be affected. It could be anyone from the different age groups who have not taken vaccination or have not developed antibodies. The higher severity of the infection (Delta variant) resulted in higher fatality rate in short period during the second wave,” he said.