Ghaziabad: Parties analyse low turnout in phase -1 to redraw strategy

Hectic campaigning in Ghaziabad for phase 2 as parties monitor voter turnout in phase 1 seats of western UP. BJP eyes strategy change based on trends.

Even as hectic campaigning continued in Ghaziabad for phase 2 of elections scheduled for April 26, parties and candidates on Friday were glued to different sources to get information on the voter turnout in eight seats of western Uttar Pradesh that voted in phase 1 of the Lok Sabha polls.

In the light of concerns about voter turnout, a Congress leader said that they have stepped up campaigning in Loni, Muradnagar and Dhaulana which saw a high turnout in previous elections. (Sakib Ali/HT Photo)

The eight of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh that went for phase 1 polls include Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina, Moradabad, Rampur and Pilibhit.

The seats hold significance for the ruling BJP as they could win only three of these eight seats in 2019 while three went to Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and two to Samajwadi Party (SP).

According to the Election Commission of India, the eight seats recorded a turnout of about 57.96% around 7pm on Friday. The final tally will be known only by Saturday, said officials. In 2019, the average turnout in the eight seats was 66.54%.

“Political parties and candidates often rethink strategies based on turnout trends in phase 1. A turnout in the range of 55-60% could mean that voters are not enthusiastic about voting for the incumbent government. Based on phase 1 trends, parties and candidates may change slogans or campaign strategy to target certain areas/sections more,” said KK Sharma, associate professor from CCS University (Meerut).

A second expert said phase 1 is crucial for both BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition alliance -- Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).

“The NDA and INDIA may look to gain as many seats as they can in phase 1 to set a trend for the next phases and may rethink strategies. The phase 1 trend is not expected to get repeated in urban centres such as Ghaziabad and Noida due to summer heat and also because April 26 is a Friday and people may need to go to office. So, it is not anticipated that phase 2 turnout will be as high as phase 1, which mostly covered rural regions,” said Sanjay Mishra, associate professor (political science), MMG Degree College, Ghaziabad.

The BJP office-bearers said they expect a favourable trend in phase 1, thanks to hectic campaigning by chief minister Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Modi.

“The phase 1 polling will provide us a trend and we will act accordingly. We will now try to reach out to more voters in Ghaziabad and especially in urban segments,” said Ajay Sharma, BJP’s Lok Sabha convener (Ghaziabad).

Dayaram Sain, district president, BSP, said, “The low turnout in phase 1 indicates that voters did not come out to vote for the incumbent government. Seeing results in phase 1, we expect the turnout to remain around 55% in Ghaziabad. Our voters and cadres are the ones who will step out in any circumstances to vote. We have requested our party chief Mayawati to hold a rally in Ghaziabad on April 21.”

The Congress said the low turnout in phase 1 indicates that voters are not enthusiastic about the ruling party.

“Generally, people in western UP come out in large numbers to vote. We will now focus more on Ghaziabad’s rural segments. We have stepped up campaigning in Loni, Muradnagar and Dhaulana which saw a high turnout in previous elections,” said Vinit Tyagi, district president of the Congress.