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BJP working on Plan B in Maha: Lure Congress, NCP dissidents
Mumbai: With uncertainty over the Supreme Court verdict and hard bargaining by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde in the power-sharing deal in cabinet, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is quietly working on Plan B to retain power in the state
Mumbai: With uncertainty over the Supreme Court verdict and hard bargaining by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde in the power-sharing deal in cabinet, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is quietly working on Plan B to retain power in the state. The plan is aimed at weaning away dissidents from the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), according to leaders from different parties who spoke to HT.
The party top brass is determined not to lose power in Maharashtra at any cost, having wrested it back from the three-party coalition, Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), led by Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray.
The Eknath Shinde- Devendra Fadnavis government has the support of 164 MLAs in the assembly, apart from speaker Rahul Narwekar, who belongs to the BJP. The BJP itself has 106 MLAs in the 288-member house and the support of 40 rebel Sena MLAs, including Shinde, as well as other independents. One seat is vacant in the assembly due to the demise of Shiv Sena MLA Ramesh Latke.
The top court is hearing a clutch of petitions about the change of guard in the state. In case the apex court rules that the Shinde-led rebel Sena faction has violated provisions of the anti-defection law or if any other disagreement crops up with Shinde, the BJP wants to make sure that its hold on the government does not falter. To that end, the party is aiming to get the support of 10 to 20 MLAs from other parties. In case the 40 rebel Sena MLAs are disqualified, the strength of the house would come down to 247 and the BJP would need the support of 124 MLAs to cross the majority mark. The strategists from the Fadnavis camp are in touch with a section of Congress legislators. Besides, NCP leader Ajit Pawar has not burnt his bridges with the BJP after his 2019 coup to form the government with Fadnavis failed, they say.
There are speculations of a split in the Congress with some reports claiming that a group of Congress legislators including former chief minister Ashok Chavan and former minister Aslam Shaikh may leave the party for the BJP.
While Shinde and Fadnavis took the oath of office on June 30, the expansion of the cabinet is yet to take place due to the inability of the two parties to strike a power-sharing deal. The Shinde camp is reportedly upset at the BJP’s attempts to corner important portfolios like home, finance, revenue, water resources and rural development. On Sunday, Fadnavis, who was speaking to the media in New Delhi, insisted that the expansion of the state cabinet would take place soon. “The chief minister has said that the expansion will happen soon. I will go a bit further and say that it will happen sooner than expected,” he said, adding that there was no link between the SC hearings and the expansion. While some legislators from the Shinde camp sprung a surprise by calling for Shinde and Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray to be united, Fadnavis played down the comment. “What someone says has no importance in politics. The situation is important,” he noted.
Shinde is also facing the challenge of accommodating his men in the cabinet. His camp is more of an expedient grouping of rebels and not a coherent alliance with a strong foundational or ideological basis. Depriving them of power may lead to discontent in his camp, say insiders.
At least two senior BJP leaders said a chunk of Congress legislators are in touch with the state leadership of the party. “There are several legislators who are facing probes in different cases. Besides, some who come from the cooperative sector, need state government’s help. They are in touch with us,” said a former state minister and senior BJP legislator.
“They (Congress rebels) may have to resign as MLAs and contest the polls again as BJP nominees. In case they are defeated, these leaders can be accommodated in the legislative council,” he said. BJP had adopted the tactic of getting sitting MLAs of other parties to resign and contest again in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh when the government changed.
Chavan, who had to resign as chief minister in the Adarsh housing case in 2010, still has a CBI case pending against him. He said last week that there was no truth in the rumours about him negotiating with the BJP and that he was firmly with Congress. Shaikh who is an MLA from Malad-Malvani is facing allegations of supporting film studios being run in his constituency. BJP leader Kirit Somaiya has alleged that the studios are illegal and has sought a probe. Last week, images of Shaikh outside Fadnavis’s official residence with BJP leader Mohit Bharatiya had gone viral. Shaikh has not reacted yet.
“I do not know from where these things have emerged from,” said Chavan, when contacted for his comment. While denying any reports of his estrangement from the Congress, Chavan said he had also participated in the party’s protests against inflation and other issues on Friday. Ajit Pawar could not be contacted for his comments.
A Congress legislator from western Maharashtra too is in touch with BJP leaders even as his businessman father-in-law is being probed by the Enforcement Directorate. Another Congress MLA from Vidarbha is facing investigation in a cooperative bank scam and is willing to switch sides to avoid any trouble, according to party insiders.
At least three senior Congress leaders contacted by HT admitted that dissidence was brewing in the ranks but said the number of MLAs who could leave the party would not be even one third of its strength in the assembly. “Even if some legislators quit the party, they may not get the numbers to avoid action under the anti-defection laws. They may have to resign and seek a fresh mandate,” said a senior Congress leader.
However, a Congress leader, who was a minister in the Uddhav Thackeray-led government claimed that rumours of a likely split in the Congress or the NCP were being spread deliberately by the BJP to put Shinde on the backfoot in the power-sharing negotiations.
“There is uncertainty over what may happen in the courts. If the 40 Shiv Sena rebels are disqualified, the strength of the house will drop to 247 and the BJP will need 125 members to be in a majority. It can get Congress and NCP MLAs to resign and contest fresh elections as per the Karnataka formula. This possibility cannot be denied,” said Hemant Desai, senior journalist and political analyst. “There are questions over the delay in the expansion of the cabinet… and this seems to be a logical assumption,” he added.
“We are aware of these reports and cannot say that these possibilities do not exist. The condition of these two parties (Congress and NCP) is such that those who are concerned about their future can take their own decision,” said senior BJP leader Madhav Bhandari.
