E-Paper
Despite increased testing, J&K’s Covid positivity rate saw massive dip in June
The month saw a TPR of 1.8% against 8.7% in May when the second wave of the virus was raging through the country, but experts caution against complacency
There was a drastic decrease in Jammu and Kashmir’s test positivity rate (TPR) for Covid-19 in June. The month saw a TPR of 1.8% as against 8.7% in May when the second wave of the virus was raging through the country.
What is TPR
TPR is the percentage of tests that turn out to be positive out of the total tests conducted during the period. It helps indicate the extent of infection in the community. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), a positivity rate of less than 5% indicates that the pandemic is in control in the community.
Ebbing wave
Jammu and Kashmir’s TPR in the second week of May stood at 10.7 %. By the last week of May, it had dipped to 5.9%, while in the second week of June, it had further gone down 2% and then reached 0.79% in the last week of June.
“We are almost at the lowest end of the ebbing second wave but we shouldn’t be complacent the way we were with the first wave,” said Dr Mohammad Saleem Khan, professor and head, community medicine and nodal officer of Covid-19 at Government Medical College, Srinagar.
He said the second wave came quickly and didn’t last long. “It was not expected. It saw a sharp rise, peaked for a small duration and then there was a sharp decline. Maybe Covid-appropriate behavior, SOPs and vaccination helped us,” he said.
Restrictions were imposed for several weeks, starting April 29. Most of these curbs have been lifted to a large extent in eight districts and partially in the rest of the 12 districts of the UT.
Number of tests went up in June
Besides, the average daily tests in the month of June went up to 46,450 as against 42,000 in the month of May, again indicative of the reduction in the extent of infection when collated with the positivity rate.
From a total of 1, 14,382 infections in the month of May, the number reduced to 25,197 infections in June – a drop of 78%.
Similarly, the fatalities declined by 74% in June when 416 deaths were recorded against 1,625 deaths in the month of May.
Dr Khan said that in previous pandemics, the world did not have vaccines. “In past pandemics, we never had vaccinations, and this is why third wave used to be severe but this time, we can alter the course of the pandemic by getting vaccinated and showing Covid-appropriate behavior,” he said.
“If we are able to follow the same precautions, we may be able to thwart the impact of the anticipated third wave,” he said.
However, what was intriguing in June was a slower decline in the fatalities. While for every 70 positive cases, one death was reported in May, there was one death for 60 infections in June.
“Many of them were those who had been hospitalised for many days. Positivity is current but the deaths are results of previous weeks. For example, if somebody is positive today, he can get severe after a few weeks which can lead to his death. That is why the corresponding decline in death this month is less,” said Khan.
The active cases in the UT had shot up to a record number of 52,848 on May 13 which fell to 4,600 by the end of June.
Overall, the UT has recorded 3, 16,291 cases and 4,333 deaths up to July 2 since the pandemic began in March 2020.
