Rebels disrupt Solapur polls amid tug-of-war over 11 crucial seats in western Maha

While 11-seat Solapur has become a battleground for Mahayuti and MVA, both alliances face unexpected turbulence in the form of record eight rebel candidates who have entered the fray

PUNE: While Solapur with its 11 assembly seats has become a battleground for the ruling Mahayuti and opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), both alliances face unexpected turbulence in the form of a record eight rebel candidates who have entered the fray, risking vote splits in a district crucial for controlling western Maharashtra.

While 11-seat Solapur has become a battleground for Mahayuti and MVA, both alliances face unexpected turbulence in the form of record eight rebel candidates who have entered the fray. ((PIC FOR REPRESENTATION))

In the 2019 assembly polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the dominant party in Solapur securing four seats and later adding Pandharpur through a by-election. However recent shifts, particularly the splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP, have redefined the Mahayuti’s dominance, giving it control over 10 out of 11 seats in the district. Meanwhile, the MVA is clinging to a single seat and focusing on traditional strongholds amid internal strife.

Despite the edge the Mahayuti has, recently concluded Lok Sabha (LS) elections where the alliance lost both Madha and Solapur seats indicate that this stronghold may not be guaranteed. According to political analysts, these losses suggest a vulnerability that both alliances must contend with, especially as rebels could swing results in tight races.

Solapur-based political analyst, Digvijay Jirage, said, “Firstly due to the split in two major parties, aspirants this time have many options. Secondly due to the mess in ticket distribution from both the MVA and Mahayuti, rebellions in the district have increased. All is now dependent upon voting percentage; if percentage is reduced, then 5000 to 10,000 votes will also play a crucial role in this election in the Solapur district.”

Overview of seats

Solapur City Central: Congress stronghold Solapur City Central has been represented by Praniti Shinde who won her third term. In the coming elections, BJP’s Devendra Kothe, CPI (M)’s Narsayya Adam and Congress’s Chetan Narote are vying for the seat with AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen) fielding Farooq Shabdi and Nationalist Congress Party’s/NCP’s Taufique Shaikh entering the fray as a rebel, potentially fragmenting the votes in a constituency with a significant Muslim voter base.

Solapur City North: BJP’s Vijaykumar Deshmukh, a four-time MLA, is up against NCP’s Mahesh Kothe. The considerable Lingayat population here has already attracted a BJP rebel in former mayor Shobha Banshetti, making the contest unpredictable. Solapur North’s strong BJP support in the LS polls may be tested as the party contends with internal divisions.

Solapur South: Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded Amar Patil against BJP’s sitting MLA Subhash Deshmukh who is contesting his third election. But NCP (SP) leader Dharmaraj Kadadi, chairman of Siddheshwar Cooperative Sugar Mill and a well-known Lingayat face, is running as an independent. The segregation of MVA leaders (between Patil and Kadadi) may impact the final outcome of the election.

Sangole: Known as the bastion of the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP), Sangole has seen the enduring influence of late Ganpatrao Deshmukh. Now, the seat is witnessing a three-way contest between Shiv Sena MLA Shahaji Patil, Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate Deepak Salunkhe, and PWP candidate Dr Babasaheb Deshmukh. A Shiv Sena (UBT) rebel could undercut MVA support here.

Pandharpur: A triangular fight unfolds as BJP’s Samadhan Awatade faces Congress’s Bhagirath Bhalke and NCP’s Anil Sawant. The clash between Congress MP Praniti Shinde and NCP MP Dhairyasheel Mohite-Patil over this seat has turned Pandharpur into a prestige battle within the opposition.

Madha: NCP’s Meenal Sathe, NCP (SP)’s Abhijit Patil, and independent Ranjit Shinde (son of sitting MLA Baban Shinde) compete in a constituency defined by sugarcane plantations. All three candidates control local sugar factories, which influence voter loyalty.

Karmala: Sitting MLA Sanjay Mama Shinde is up against NCP (SP)’s Narayan Patil and Shiv Sena’s Digvijay Bagal. Sanjay Shinde is supposed to be close to Ajit Pawar and is hoping to get another term from Karmala as an independent candidate. In Karmala, Mohite-Patil’s role is also important.

Barshi, Akkalkot and Malshiras: There will be a direct fight between the MVA and Mahayuti. From Barshi (with a sizeable Maratha population), sitting independent MLA Rajendra Raut is fighting Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Dilip Sopal on a Shiv Sena ticket. Barshi has the highest Maratha population and Rajendra Raut’s remarks against Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil are likely to play a major role in the outcome of the election.

Election issues in Solapur

Despite fierce contests, residents have expressed discontent over core issues such as water distribution from Ujani Dam, electricity for farmers, and delayed payments for sugarcane. The region, largely semi-arid and reliant on Ujani Dam, faces recurring water shortages, yet candidates seem focused on local feuds and alliance splits rather than these pressing matters.

Solapur’s economic identity also hinges on industries such as textiles, beedi production, and agriculture, but vital concerns such as irregular electricity supply and crop-related problems are receiving little attention in campaign speeches. Instead, the wave of rebels has intensified personal attacks, distracting from substantive debates. With polls round the corner, Solapur’s political landscape is shifting. Whether Mahayuti can retain its dominance amid internal discord and a strong push by MVA remains to be seen.

Current representation

BJP (five seats), NCP (2), Congress (1), Shiv Sena (1) and Independents (2 seats).