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Cricket PlayersFour teams, one spot: How India, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Pakistan can qualify for Women's World Cup semi-final
India leads the competition for the last spot in the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 semi-finals, with New Zealand, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan still in contention.
With Australia, South Africa, and England already securing their places in the semi-finals of the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025, attention now shifts to a thrilling race for the fourth and final spot. Four teams — India, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan — remain in contention, with seven league games still to be played.
India, despite their recent chokes against South Africa, Australia and England, currently lead the race among the chasing pack, while New Zealand, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan are clinging to slim but still realistic hopes of sneaking into the knockouts.
India – 5 Matches | 2 Wins | 4 Points | NRR +0.526
India’s qualification hopes are firmly in their own hands. With two matches remaining — against New Zealand (Thursday) and Bangladesh (Sunday) — India will seal a semi-final berth if they beat New Zealand in their next game.
However, a loss to New Zealand would complicate the scenario. In that case, India would have to beat Bangladesh and hope New Zealand lose to England in their final group game. India’s superior net run-rate gives them an edge if they finish level on points with New Zealand.
Weather could also play a role. A washout against New Zealand wouldn't be a bad result for India — even if they lose to Bangladesh — as long as New Zealand lose to England and neither Sri Lanka nor Pakistan finish with more than six points.
If both of India’s remaining games in Navi Mumbai are washed out, India would still qualify, provided New Zealand lose to England (or that game also ends without a result). In the event of a points tie on six with Sri Lanka or Pakistan, India’s strong net run-rate could help them edge through.
New Zealand – 5 Matches | 1 Win | 4 Points | NRR -0.245
New Zealand face a do-or-die clash against India on Thursday. A loss would knock them out, while a win would keep their hopes alive going into their final league fixture against England.
If they win both matches, New Zealand will qualify directly for the semi-finals regardless of other results.
But if New Zealand beat India and lose to England, they must hope India also lose to Bangladesh, allowing the White Ferns to advance on points or net run-rate.
A washout against India will only work in their favour if they beat England, and India don't beat Bangladesh. If both of New Zealand's matches are rained out, they’ll need India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan all to stay below six points — an unlikely but still mathematically possible scenario.
Sri Lanka – 6 Matches | 1 Win | 4 Points | NRR -1.035
After their dramatic seven-run win over Bangladesh, Sri Lanka are still alive — but barely.
They need to beat Pakistan in their final game to reach six points and then hope India lose both of their remaining matches. Additionally, they’ll want England to beat New Zealand, preventing the White Ferns from pulling ahead on points.
Sri Lanka’s biggest hurdle may be net run-rate. If they finish level on six points with New Zealand, they must beat Pakistan convincingly to overturn the current NRR gap.
Pakistan – 5 Matches | 0 Wins | 2 Points | NRR -1.887
Despite not having a single win so far, Pakistan remain in the mix thanks to two washouts that have given them two points.
To qualify, Pakistan must win their final two games — against South Africa and Sri Lanka — and do so by large enough margins to overhaul New Zealand’s net run-rate, assuming New Zealand don't win again.
They also need India to lose both remaining matches, to create a four-way tie on six points, where net run-rate would be the deciding factor.
