Jasprit Bumrah's return statistically spells more trouble for Team India, but do overall numbers tell the full story?

Jasprit Bumrah has been the leading pacer for India in Test format, but a stat emerged ahead of the Lord's match which showed how India have fared without him.

India may have won handsomely at Edgbaston without Jasprit Bumrah, but his potential return to the XI for the next Test could complicate things more than it fixes. On the surface, Bumrah’s presence is reassuring: a world-class pacer, fresh off a five-wicket haul in the series opener at Headingley. But statistically, India’s record without their pace spearhead raises a pressing question: do they actually fare better without him?

India's Jasprit Bumrah during a training session ahead of the third Test cricket match against England, at Lord's Cricket Ground, in London (PTI)

Since Bumrah’s debut in 2018, India have played 27 Tests without him, winning 19, losing 5, and drawing 3. That’s a win percentage of over 70%. Contrast that with games he has played: 46 Tests, with India winning 20 of them and losing 22. Suddenly, the numbers don’t paint him as the irreplaceable match-winner he’s long perceived to be.

But it’s not that simple. The catch lies in where those games were played.

Away matches and grey area

Most of India’s wins without Bumrah have come at home, a region where spin dominates, and his absence is easily masked. India have won 14 out of 18 home Tests without Bumrah, compared to just 2 wins out of 5 in SENA countries – South Africa, England, New Zealand, and Australia – in his absence. It’s here that his presence still holds critical value, especially with the ball swinging or seams offering bounce.

However, even this stat has its blind spots. India’s historic win at the Gabba in 2021 came without Bumrah. Mohammed Siraj, who led the pace attack then, stepped up again at Edgbaston in Bumrah’s absence. With Akash Deep and Prasidh Krishna offering fresh legs and Jadeja anchoring the bowling unit, India didn’t miss their frontline quick, at least not visibly.

Bumrah's presence will undoubtedly boost the Indian setup and spark some fear in the opponents; however, it could also potentially upset the rhythm and balance of a bowling unit that has thrived in his absence. It is, of course, a no brainer that a fit Jasprit Bumrah is an asset for the bowling attack, and that the bowler is now well-rested to have another crack at England at the iconic Lord's.