2,786 fresh cases in Delhi, but infection spread slowing, say experts

Delhi on Thursday reported 2,786 new cases of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) taking the city’s total infected count past the 300,000 mark. As per the daily health

Delhi on Thursday reported 2,786 new cases of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) taking the city’s total infected count past the 300,000 mark. As per the daily health bulletin shared by the Delhi government, 300,833 people in the city have had the infection and 5,653 have succumbed to it in last seven months.

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The first case of the infection in the city was reported on March 2, when a 45-year-old man, who had returned from Italy, tested positive. The first death was reported eleven days later, when the 68-year-old mother of the fifth Covid-19 patient from the city succumbed to the virus.

Since then, the city has seen two surge in number of cases in June-July and then again in mid-September. The government now has 2,734 containment zones in the city and tests over 50,000 people a day to control the spread of the infection.

The positivity rate – fraction of samples that return positive among those tested – has come down to 5.34% over the last seven days, indication a slowing of the spread of the infection. This number had reached 9.55% at the beginning of September, prompting the government to tighten control measures. The daily testing was scaled up from 20,000 a day to over 50,000 over the month.

On Thursday, the number of more accurate RT-PCR tests conducted also crossed 10,000 after five days. The daily health bulletin reported 10,125 RT-PCR tests, accounting for almost 19% of the total 53,322 tests that were conducted during the day. The number of RT-PCR, as well as, the number of total tests has seen a decline this week even as the number of cases continued to fall. Delhi conducted 48,629 tests over the last seven days as compared to 54,124 tests the week before that.

“There is no intention of reducing the number of tests being conducted, we will keep up these numbers to ensure the infection remains in control,” said an official from Delhi’s health department, on condition of anonymity.

Dr GC Khilnani, chairman at PSRI Institute of Pulmonary and Critical Care said that there could be a waxing and waning in the number of Covid-19 cases till there is susceptible population in Delhi. Herd immunity is likely to be achieved when at least 60 to 70% of the population has had the infection or has been immunised,” said .

“The people who have had the infection once are likely to have some immunity against a second hit, with very few cases of reinfection reported. A large study from Iceland shows that 90% of people retain the antibodies after four months of infection,” he said.