Why the BMC polls are key

The Kasba Peth bypoll result was a boost to the Maha Vikas Aghadi but municipal elections will be a tough test for Uddhav Thackeray.

The political dust from the recently concluded byelections is still settling in Maharashtra, but all parties, especially the Shiv Sena and its estranged faction led by former chief minister (CM) Uddhav Thackeray, may already be looking ahead to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, likely to be scheduled later this year. Though bypolls are localised and far too isolated a sample to pick up electoral trends, the results in Chinchwad and Kasba Peth in Pune held out some clues on how the political wind is blowing in a state that sends the second highest number of parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha. In Chinchwad, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate won easily over the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP ) candidate after a rebel Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) candidate made it a triangular contest. But in Kasba Peth, a constituency in the old parts of Pune considered a BJP bastion, the Congress candidate won a surprisingly decisive victory after nearly three decades. The win has given a confidence boost to the embattled Maha Vikas Aghadi and led NCP chief Sharad Pawar to say that the alliance will fight the next assembly and general elections together.

Congress candidate Ravindra Dhangekar with supporters celebrates his victory in the Kasba Peth Assembly bypoll, March 2, 2023. (PTI)

What impact this arithmetic will have on the BMC elections is difficult to tell. Uddhav Thackeray will be hoping that his network of shakha pramukhs — it’s one prong of the Sena where he still appears to have some support — is not dented by the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) decision last month to give the name and symbol of the party to his rival, Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde.

He will also hope that the leaders left with him — most of whom are from the Mumbai region — are able to muster local support. This is important because even before the current turmoil, the Sena was losing some ground in its original stronghold — in the last municipal elections, the BJP won 82 seats and the Sena 84 — and whether the Marathi Manoos continues to back the family of Bal Thackeray over the party he founded and the symbol he made iconic will determine the direction of the election.

As the richest municipal corporation in the country, BMC has been central to the Sena for decades. Mumbai is where the party gains its source of its street power. Undoubtedly, the elections are far more key for Uddhav Thackeray, who will find going ahead very difficult with a poor showing. The election may also decide who the public believes Bal Thackeray’s true heir.