E-Paper
Prospects for India-Russia cooperation in the Arctic
This article is authored by Pravesh Kumar Gupta, associate fellow (Eurasia), Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.
Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi's visit to Vladivostok in 2019 for the Eastern Economic Forum marked a significant turning point in India's Arctic policy. During this visit, he launched India's Act Far East policy and announced a $ 1 billion line of credit for development projects in the Arctic. Since then, cooperation between India and Russia in the Arctic has progressed from limited scientific exchanges to becoming a key component of their ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’. There has been a proactive approach and strong political will from Russia regarding engagement with India in the Arctic. However, on India's side, reciprocity in political will for enhanced engagement in the Arctic has been missing.
While the Arctic presents significant opportunities for cooperation between the two nations, it is the right time for India to increase its economic activities in the region, which will also provide strategic advantages. Recent geopolitical shifts, the need for alternative supply chains, increasing energy demands, and opportunities arising from the climate crisis have accelerated this cooperation. With the climate crisis causing rapid melting of Arctic ice, some models predict that the region could be ice-free during summers by 2035. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) offers India a more secure trade pathway, especially in light of vulnerabilities in traditional routes such as the Suez Canal.
Recent milestones, such as the December 2025 Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support (RELOS) agreement ratified in the Russian Parliament just before President Vladimir Putin's visit to New Delhi is noteworthy. It offers India access to Russian Arctic naval ports, polar training, and logistics for up to five warships and 3,000 personnel at a time and vice versa. This agreement will be valid for five years with renewal options. RELOS underscores a deepening military-economic nexus between India and Russia, with the Arctic as a major component of this agreement. If we look ahead to the next 10 years of Indo-Russia partnership, cooperation in the Arctic could yield transformative benefits. It could double bilateral trade, which is currently targeted at $ 100 billion by 2030, potentially expanding to $ 200 billion if Arctic ventures scale up, driven by energy, infrastructure, and connectivity, in addition to the strategic aspect.
A primary driver of India-Russia relations in the next decade is energy cooperation. Russia's Arctic reserves, which hold nearly 80% of the region's oil and gas, align with India's surging demand. According to International Energy Agency forecasts, it is projected to double by 2040. India has already ramped up imports, with Russian crude comprising 39% of its total in 2023, up from 2.5% before the 2022 Ukraine conflict, and LNG imports rising amid discounted prices. Joint ventures like ONGC's investments in projects such as Vostok and Dolginskoye oil fields could help India secure 10-15 million tonnes of annual Arctic LNG by 2030. This will bolster India’s energy diversification away from West Asian suppliers.
Beyond hydrocarbons, rare earth minerals and coal extraction had huge potential. Russia's Far East and Arctic zones hold vast deposits, and India-Russia agreements aim for joint mining, potentially supplying 20-30% of India's critical mineral needs for its green transition by 2035. Altogether, currently, sanctions pose hurdles, stalling some deals, but trilateral frameworks with third countries could mitigate risks.
Connectivity is another important area for India-Russia cooperation in the Arctic. The NSR represents a game-changer, with Russia promoting India as a key transit partner, potentially handling 100 million tonnes annually by 2030. NSR cargo hit 37.9 million tonnes in 2024, signalling robust growth. The Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor, operationalized in late 2024, cuts shipping times by 16 days, and its linkage to the NSR and International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) could boost Indo-Russian trade by 30-40% over the decade.
Cooperation in Shipbuilding also has huge potential. Reportedly, a $ 256 million joint investment with Russia's Direct Investment Fund targets Arctic-class vessels, including non-nuclear icebreakers, with production potentially starting in Indian yards by 2027. In another 10 years, this could see 20-30 Indo-Russian vessels operational, enhancing India's polar navigation expertise and reducing reliance on Chinese-dominated routes. Geopolitically, this counters China's Polar Silk Road, providing India with leverage in a multipolar Arctic.
Bilateral scientific ties, rooted in space cooperation since 1962, are expanding to Arctic research, with joint climate studies and technology transfers projected to intensify under a 2024-2029 framework. India’s observer status in the Arctic Council since 2013 positions it for deeper involvement, potentially establishing a permanent research station by 2030. Infrastructure investments, including ports and multimodal hubs, could see $ 10-20 billion in joint funding over the decade, fostering production chains in mining and energy. Space applications for monitoring, leveraging ISRO-ROS COSMOS synergies, may enhance environmental protection and resource management, with potential for BRICS-wide initiatives like a Svalbard research centre.
The RELOS pact marks a strategic pivot, allowing Indian forces Arctic access for operations and training, potentially extending to joint patrols by 2030 amid rising NATO activities. This helps Russia diversify beyond China, while India gains a northern flank to offset pressures in the Indo-Pacific. Over 10 years, this could evolve into broader security dialogues, including counter-terrorism, with India participating in Russian Arctic exercises. However, Western sanctions and Arctic Council suspensions since the 2022 Ukraine war may complicate progress, though bilateral channels remain resilient. Prospects are often tempered by sanctions, which have delayed projects like Vostok, and environmental risks from rapid warming. India's strategic autonomy requires balancing ties with Russia and western partnerships, potentially through diversified engagements with Nordic states. Yet, mutual incentives, Russia's need for non-Chinese investors and India's quest for energy and connectivity, suggest sustained momentum. By 2036, this partnership could position the Arctic as a ‘strategic geopolitical pillar’ for India, yielding economic dividends while reshaping Eurasian dynamics.
This article is authored by Pravesh Kumar Gupta, associate fellow (Eurasia), Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.
