2023 was India’s second warmest year in India on record
The annual mean land surface air temperature over India averaged 0.65°C above the long-term average for 1981 to 2010 period.
New Delhi: Last year was the second-warmest on record for India since 1901, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday, and predicted the month of January will unlikely have very harsh winter conditions for most parts of the country
The annual mean land surface air temperature over India averaged 0.65°C above the long-term average for 1981 to 2010 period, slightly lower from the 0.71°C recorded in 2016.
The readings tie in with multiple indicators from around the world --- such as sea surface temperatures --- that showed 2023 to be one of the warmest ever, in major part due to the El Nino effect.
El Nino is a cyclical warming of the equatorial pacific, which leads to a cascading impact around the world, including sapping the intensity of the monsoon rains in India after it sets in. The warmest year of 2016 too was an El Nino year.
For the coming month, the IMD projected that minimum temperatures --- the coldest that nights will get --- are likely to be above-normal over many parts of the country, except some parts of north India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
Monthly maximum, or daytime, temperatures for January is likely to be below normal over many parts of the central and northwest India, while being above normal for most parts of Peninsular and northeast India, the IMD projected.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO’s) provisional State of the Global Climate released in November projected 2023 to be the warmest on record. Data until the end of October shows that the year was about 1.4°C warmer than the pre-industrial 1850-1900 period which is treated as a baseline to calculate global warming.
The five warmest years for India have been 2016 (+0.710°C); 2023 (+0.65°C); 2009 (+0.55°C); 2017 (+0.541°C) and 2010 (+0.539°C). The maximum temperature in India rose at the rate of around 1.01°C in 100 years.
IMD’s temperature trend map for 1901 to 2023 period shows most of the country is seeing a warming trend in temperatures.
Mean temperatures were normal during the pre-monsoon season, but it was the post-monsoon when the temperatures seem to have risen the most (+1.0°C). The second highest variation was seen in the winter season (+0.83°C), followed by monsoon season (0.74°C).
The monsoon rainfall itself was 95% of the long-period average of 1971-2020, which is treated as the baseline.
“El Nino certainly helps in increasing temperatures. This year by summer we are expecting El Nino neutral conditions therefore it is expected that it may not be so warm. If you notice this year during pre-monsoon season when El Nino did not develop, conditions were not so warm but temperatures were above normal in monsoon and post-monsoon season,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
Last year had the highest number of very heavy and extremely heavy (over 20 cm) rainfall events in five years, IMD said. A large number of extreme weather events were also reported last year. Thunderstorms and lightning reportedly claimed more than 1,270 lives; heavy rainfall events killed around 860 persons and heat waves killed 160 people based on IMD’s analysis of various news and other reports.
Above normal cyclone activity was also observed over the North Indian Ocean in 2023. There were six cyclones over the north Indian Ocean and of these, three were extremely severe cyclonic storms (wind speed of over 170-180 gusting to 200 kmph)—Mocha, Biparjoy and Tej.
What to expect this year?
During the January to March period, rainfall over north India is most likely to be normal (86-114 % of LPA). Seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during January to March season is most likely to be above normal (>112% of (LPA).
Normal to above-normal seasonal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except parts from extreme south peninsular India, extreme northwest and northeast India where below normal rainfall is likely.
Monthly rainfall for January 2024 over North India, consisting of seven meteorological subdivisions (East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh) is most likely to be above normal (>122 % of LPA).
Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during January 2024 is also most likely to be above normal (>118% of (LPA).
Normal rainfall during January over north India will help the Rabi crop, IMD officials said, especially since rain in December in northwest India was 65% below normal. Rabi crops are mainly sown between mid-November to December.
IMD also projected that El Niño conditions are likely to continue during January, February and March of 2024 season and weaken gradually thereafter. El Nino years are characterised by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which has a high correlation with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India.
