BJP prevails over allies for now

There was much speculation on how much would the BJP yield to the demands of the allies after it fell short of the halfway mark for the first time since 2014

The composition of the new Union council of ministers sworn in on Sunday indicates that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has prevailed over its allies for now by deciding the number of berths allocated to them. Eleven of the 72 slots in the council have been given to nine of the 15 parties in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The new Union council of ministers. (AFP)

There was much speculation on how much would the BJP yield to the demands of the allies after it fell short of the halfway mark of 272 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha for the first time since 2014. Unlike in 2014 and 2019, the BJP has just 240 seats. The backing of partners such as the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which have 28 lawmakers, has been crucial to the BJP’s return to power for a third time in a row.

Both TDP, which is set to form the next government in Andhra Pradesh in coalition with the BJP and Jana Sena this week, and the JD(U) reiterated their demands for special packages for their states in the preliminary discussions ahead of Sunday’s swearing-in ceremony.

The Stakes

TDP and JD(U) avoided flexing their muscles considering the stability of their state governments even as the two parties have indicated choices of ministries they would prefer as per the requirements of their constituencies. A new capital for Andhra Pradesh is among TDP’s priorities and it needs financial and infrastructural support for that. Bihar, where JD(U) heads the NDA government, too has been seeking financial aid for infrastructure development and employment generation.

The speed and pace vis-a-vis the special packages will also be crucial in ensuring cordial ties between the two allies. TDP snapped ties with the NDA in 2018, accusing the BJP of reneging on its promise of granting special status, which ensures most funds from the Union government are in the form of grants, etc, to Andhra Pradesh. The JD(U) has a history of switching sides. The issue of special packages as such is expected to be a pivotal condition for the longevity of the alliance.

In Bihar, the NDA parties also need to put up a united front ahead of the 2025 state polls given the resurgence of the Opposition. The NDA secured about 47% of votes and 30 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar. It lost nine seats while its vote share dipped by six percentage points. The vote share of the Opposition Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) rose by six percentage points and it won eight seats compared to one in 2019.

No wrangling or squabbling

The NDA allies broadly agreed to the allocation of Cabinet berths based on their strengths in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. Once the formula was broadly agreed to, there was no wrangling or squabbling. Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) was the only exception. It declined the offer of one minister of state with an independent charge berth. Over the next week, the BJP has its work cut out. It is expected to iron out differences with the allies in Maharashtra, where assembly polls are due later this year. Niggling issues with chief minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiva Sena have been reported to the BJP leadership.

The Maharashtra challenge

Distribution of seats for the assembly polls is likely to be challenging as the Shiv Sena is expected to be more assertive. A Maharashtra BJP leader said there was a perception that the overall NDA tally in the state would decline as alliance partners may drag the score down. “But the Sena won seven of the 10 seats it contested...going ahead, it will want the BJP to cede more...” said the leader.

The BJP has rubbished speculation that some of the Sena leaders may be in talks with Shiva Sena (UBT), which is part of the INDIA bloc. But it has sparked concern in the state unit. “Even if it is a rumour, it needs to be stemmed,” said the leader quoted above.

The BJP is expected to address problems with the NCP too amid reports that some leaders of the key state ally plan to join the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar).

Expansion on the cards

For now, the BJP has retained 60 berths in the Union council of ministers. But given the pressure it anticipates from allies, an expansion could be on the cards ahead of the polls in Maharashtra. A lot will also depend on the allocation of ministries expected on Monday. The BJP has shown deference to the seniority and experience of two ex-chief ministers by allocating Cabinet berths to Janata Dal (Secular)’s HD Kumaraswamy and Hindustani Awam Morcha’s Jitan Ram Manjhi. It will be closely watching their response to the ministries allocated to them.

What next in Haryana

It remains to be seen whether the BJP will reach out to its old ally Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) ahead of elections in Haryana, where the Congress wrested five of the 10 Lok Sabha seats. JJP’s 10 legislators helped the BJP form the government in Haryana in 2019 before the two parties ended ties ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.