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Local issues, raised by local leaders, sealed Congress win in Karnataka
The Congress stuck to this script even though some of its leaders were initially wary of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign evoking national issues and the NDA government’s achievements to overcome the anti-incumbency of the Basavaraj Bommai-led government
For a change, the numbers do justice to the Congress’s dominance of the Karnataka polls: 136 seats, the highest since 1989; a 43% vote share, the highest since 1989; gains in every part of the state, including in Bharatiya Janata Party strongholds northern and coastal Karnataka, and the Janata Dal (S)’s area of influence, southern Karnataka.
But there’s a story behind the numbers — of men and messages — that explains how the Congress, which has won only 11of the 58 assembly elections since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, turned things around in a state that is the BJP’s only beachhead south of the Vindhyas.
The messages were local — largely to do with corruption of the incumbent government, persistent inflation, hike in fuel prices, unemployment, and economic distress — and some of them were reflected in the five guarantees promised by the party. These were: 200 units of free power to households, ₹2000 per month for women, 10 kg of free rice every month for poor, unemployment allowance and free public bus ride for women.
The leadership was largely local. The Congress campaign was led by former chief minister Siddaramaiah, who successfully revived Ahinda (the Kannada acronym for the coalition of minorities, Dalits and backwards that was once the Congress’s electoral base in the state), and state party chief DK Shivakumar, widely recognised for his ability to raise resources, although party president Mallikarjun Kharge, a Dalit from Karnataka, was a constant presence, and all the Gandhis made fleeting visits.
“This is truly the victory of the People of Karnataka. They have voted for their progressive future, their welfare and social justice. With folded hands, we thank them for putting their trust in us. Congress party shall implement the five guarantees,” Kharge tweeted.
And even when the party decided to respond to the BJP’s efforts to polarise the electorate, it did it by sharply focusing on what it wished to achieve. For instance, the promise in its manifesto to ban the Bajrang Dal, seems to have benefited it in parts of the state, especially southern Karnataka, through the consolidation of the Muslim vote.
A senior Congress leader who asked not to be named said that the promise helped the party consolidate the Muslim votes that would have otherwise been distributed between the JD(S) and the Congress across the state and especially in the all-important Old Mysuru belt.
But through the campaign, the party reiterated issues that it thought would strike a chord with the electorate — “40% Sarkara” and “PayCM” to highlight alleged corruption in the incumbent, or on issues such as the price rise. “All across Karnataka, we highlighted price rise, the hike in cooking gas price and how the Bommai government scrapped the additional ration scheme of the Siddaramaiah government,” said BK Hariprasad, former Rajya Sabha member of the Congress.
The Congress stuck to this script even though some of its leaders were initially wary of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign evoking national issues and the NDA government’s achievements to overcome the anti-incumbency of the Basavaraj Bommai-led government. “But the PM turned the BJP campaign into a personal issue, alleging the Congress has abused him 91 times. His ministers came and threatened Modi will not give ‘ashirwad’ to Karnataka if Congress wins. All these campaigns failed to touch the common people’s problems,” added Hariprasad.
In his campaigns, Siddaramaiah, the Congress’s most popular face in the state, spoke entirely about grassroots issues and countered the narrative of the BJP that there was no proof of 40% corruption. He reminded voters of the Karnataka contractor association’s letter to Modi against commission, the suicide of a contractor, and questioned the NDA’s “sabka saath, sabka vikas, sabka vishwas” pitch by asking why the BJP had fielded no Muslim candidates.
The campaign seems to have worked. The Congress won more seats in each of the state’s six regions. In Bangaluru, it won 16 of the 32 seats, as much as the BJP, and onemore than it did in 2018; in Mumbai Karnataka (aka Kittur Karnataka), it won 33 of the 50, 15more than in 2018; in central Karnataka, 26 of 37, 13more than last time; in coastal Karnataka, 6 of 19, threemore than 2018; in Hyderabad Karnataka, 26 of 40, fivemore than in 2018; and in southern Karnataka, 29 of 46, 20more than last time.
Between them, Bombay Karnataka, and southern Karnataka account for 96 seats. In 1985, the Janata Party, under Ramakrishna Hegde, the first non-Congress CM of the state, swept the two regions to come to power. This time, in the Old Mysuru region in southern Karnataka, a Bangaluru-based Congress leader claimed that the party was able to consolidate Muslim, SC, ST and OBC votes in the stronghold of the JD(S).
In Bombay Karnataka, according to party’s Belagavi district president Vinay Navalgatti, the Congress cashed in on the frustration of the Panchamasali Lingayats — the largest sub-sect of Lingayats. The Bommai government gave Panchamasalis reservation in the state’s 3B list which fixes their quota within 3B at 5%. The Panchamasalis want to be included in 2A, where the Banajiga Lingayats are, as it allows them 15% reservation.
“It’s a mandate against Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and JP Nadda. PM Modi addressed 20 rallies; no other Prime Minister has ever campaigned like Narendra Modi. Narendra Modi could not fulfil the major promises he had made,” said Siddaramaiah.
The Congress’s victory in a battle that it effectively turned into a bipolar one — it gained 4.84percentage points of vote share this time, and the JD(S) lost 5% — comes ahead of a series of bipolar contests in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and analysts say that while the Karnataka election was unique in context, the Congress can still take learnings from it.
For the Congress, desperate to improve its strike rate against the BJP, Saturday’s results can come handy when the state goes to Lok Sabha polls next year, although as the 2018 experience in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh indicates, national elections are usually an entirely different ball game.
