Cyclone heading towards south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts
A depression that formed over the east-central Bay of Bengal and the neighbourhood on Friday and intensified into a deep depression on Saturday is likely to further intensify into a cyclone over the next 12 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. The cyclone Gulab is likely to cross south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts, where an alert has been sounded, with a wind speed to 70 to 80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph on Sunday evening. The cyclone is likely to move initially west-north-westwards during the next 24 hours and west-south-westwards. Thereafter, it will cross south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts between Vishakhapatnam and Gopalpur around Kalingapatnam.
The system will bring widespread and heavy rain to parts of east and central India and then move up to Gujarat. This is the second depression of the season and also the second in September. No depressions were formed between June and August.
Normally five to six depressions form during the monsoon season and bring extensive rainfall to central and west India.
Another cyclonic circulation is expected to form around September 28 which will again bring a fresh spell of rain to east and central India, according to forecasts by IMD’s Regional Specialised Centre for Tropical Cyclones.
IMD said there is now only a two per cent deficiency in monsoon rain since June. There has been a four per cent deficiency of rain in northwest India, nine per cent excess rainfall in peninsular India and 11% deficiency in east and northeast India.
The overall deficiency at the end of August was nine per cent. The IMD in its forecast on September 1 said owing to above normal rains in September, the overall monsoon rains this year may be in the “lower end of normal category”.
The weather department considers 96% to 104% of the long-period average (LPA) to be in the “normal” category. The LPA is considered for the period of 1961 to 2010 and is 88 cm. But considering that widespread rains are likely to continue till the end of the month, total monsoon rainfall may increase further.
A cyclonic circulation is also lying over northeast Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh and a cyclonic circulation over Saurashtra and neighbourhood. A number of systems are forming over the Western Pacific. The remnants of these systems are moving towards the Bay of Bengal, leading to the formation of cyclonic circulations and low-pressure areas there.
“ Conditions like ocean heat potential, above-normal sea surface temperature (28 to 29 degrees) and low vertical wind shear are favourable for cyclogenesis. When it (cyclone Gulab) crosses the Odisha coast around Sunday, very heavy rain is expected there and over Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh also. Another cyclonic circulation is expected to form around September 28. This is mainly associated with the tropical storm which has just crossed Vietnam...The favourable position of the Madden Julian Oscillation in the east of the Indian Ocean is supporting convective activity and cloud formation over the Bay of Bengal. The remnants from the South China Sea are also moving towards the Bay of Bengal,” said Sunitha Devi, in charge of cyclones at IMD.
The extended range model guidance of the IMD is indicating widespread rain over the country till October 7 and patchy rain till October 14. The monsoon was normally expected to commence withdrawal from northwest India from September 16.
“There is no chance of monsoon withdrawal for another week. After this deep depression moves away, remnants from the Gulf of Thailand may lead to the formation of another low pressure this month. Patchy rain will continue over northwest India including Delhi/NCR. Monsoon may finish with normal rainfall around 99% of LPA,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology at Skymet Weather.