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Cyclonic storm ‘Tej’ likely to form in Arabian Sea: IMD
As per IMD, the cyclonic storm is likely to further intensify into a severe cyclonic storm and move towards the south coasts of Oman and neighbouring Yemen.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that a low-pressure area over the southeast and southwest Arabian Sea has evolved into a depression and is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by Saturday morning.
This is the second cyclonic storm forming in the Arabian Sea this year. As per the formula which is followed for naming cyclones in the Indian Ocean Region, it will be called ‘Tej’.
As per IMD, the cyclonic storm is likely to further intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by Sunday and move towards the south coasts of Oman and neighbouring Yemen.
Meteorologists have often cautioned that storms are likely to deviate from their predicted track and intensify at a different point than the forecast. As happened in June when cyclone Biparjoy formed in the Arabian Sea. It was initially moving in a north-northwest direction but eventually changed its course to make a landfall between Gujarat's Madvi and Pakistan's Karachi.
Skymet Weather, a private forecasting agency, also said that a majority of the models indicated that the cyclonic storm was heading towards the Yemen-Oman coast.
However, the Global Forecast System models have suggested that there was a possibility of a re-curvature while the storm was positioned over deep central parts of the Arabian Sea leading it to turn towards Pakistan and Gujarat coasts.
The IMD categorises a system as a Cyclonic Storm when its 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds fall between 63-88 kmph. Similarly, a severe cyclonic storm has winds between 89-117 kmph, a very severe cyclonic storm between 118-165 kmph, and an extremely severe cyclonic storm between 166-220 kmph. Wind speeds above 221 kmph give rise to a supercyclone.
As per a recent rain forecast by IMD, the southwest monsoon has withdrawn completely from the country, four days after the normal date of October 15. With the setting in of north easterlies over southern peninsular India, northeast monsoon is likely to commence over the southern peninsular region in the next three days.
