Extent of global sea ice hits all-time low amid warming

Arctic sea ice reached its lowest monthly extent for February, dropping 8% below average, marking the third consecutive month of record lows

Daily global sea ice coverage reached a new all-time low in early February, continuing a phase of record ocean and land temperatures that began early last year, the Copernicus Climate Change Service reported Thursday.

Antarctic sea ice recorded its fourth-lowest monthly extent for February, measuring 26% below average. (AFP)

Sea ice levels remained below the previous record set in February 2023 throughout the entire month, according to the climate monitoring agency.

Arctic sea ice reached its lowest monthly extent for February, dropping 8% below average, marking the third consecutive month of record lows. Antarctic sea ice recorded its fourth-lowest monthly extent for February, measuring 26% below average.

“It is important to note that the new record low for the Arctic in February is not an all-time minimum,” the report stated. Arctic sea ice is currently approaching its annual maximum extent, which typically occurs in March.

The winter season extending from December 2024 to February 2025 was the second hottest on record, measuring 0.71 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average for these three months.(HT Print)

Experts said there would be significant implication for India. “Depleting sea ice will have a long-term impact on Indian monsoon. Arctic climate can especially has a strong bearing. Depleting sea ice can impact overlying atmospheric circulation and then affect Indian monsoon through mid latitudes,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.

February 2025 ranked as the third warmest February globally, with an average surface air temperature of 13.36 degrees Celsius, 0.63 degrees above the 1991-2020 average for February. It was only marginally warmer, by 0.03 degrees, than the fourth-warmest February in 2020.

The month’s temperatures reached 1.59 degrees Celsius above the estimated 1850-1900 average — the pre-industrial level used as a baseline for measuring climate change. February marked the 19th month in the last 20 in which global average surface air temperatures exceeded this critical 1.5-degree threshold.

“February 2025 continues the streak of record or near-record temperatures observed throughout the last two years,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMW). “One of the consequences of a warmer world is melting sea ice, and the record or near-record low sea ice cover at both poles has pushed global sea ice cover to an all-time minimum.”

The winter season extending from December 2024 to February 2025 was the second hottest on record, measuring 0.71 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average for these three months.

The 12-month period from March 2024 to February 2025 was 0.71 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.59 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed.

Oceans also experienced near-record warmth in February. The average sea surface temperature for February 2025 was the second-highest value on record for the month, just 0.18 degrees Celsius below the February 2024 record.

“Sea surface temperatures remained unusually high in many ocean basins and seas, though the extent of these regions decreased compared to January, especially in the Southern Ocean and in the southern Atlantic,” the climate service added. “Some seas, such as the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea, on the contrary, saw larger record-breaking areas than last month.”

Further warming is expected as La Niña conditions — a climate pattern characterised by cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — are forecast to wane between March and May.

La Nina conditions typically corelate with a more intense monsoon in India, and the opposite El Nino phenomenon saps the monsoon season’s rains.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported om Thursday that the weak La Niña event that emerged in December 2024 is likely to be short-lived.

“Forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction indicate that the current cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to normal,” the WMO stated. There is a 60% probability that conditions will shift back to ENSO-neutral conditions — neither El Niño nor La Niña — during March-May 2025, increasing to 70% for April-June 2025.

The probability of El Niño developing — a climate pattern associated with warmer than average sea surface temperatures — is “negligible during the forecast period (March to June),” according to the WMO. The organisation noted uncertainty in the long-lead forecasts due to the “boreal spring predictability barrier,” a well-known challenge in long-term forecasts of El Niño and La Niña.

La Niña typically brings climate impacts opposite to those of El Niño, especially in tropical regions, such as cooler winters and above-normal rainfall.

The WMO emphasised that the impacts of naturally occurring climate events such as La Nina and El Nino are taking place “in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.”

In a separate event, Jim Skea, Chair of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said: “With warming exceeding 1.5 degree C last year, if only temporarily, we are entering a zone where risks of climate change are high. Warm water coral reefs could disappear completely with 2°C warming. With land-based systems, the risks associated with wildfires, permafrost degradation, loss of biodiversity rise from moderate to high with warming above 1.5° C.”