Grand Tamasha: Understanding impacts of Sri Lanka’s historic polls
In September 2024, for the first time in Sri Lanka’s history, a third-party candidate — Anura Kumara Dissanayake (known as AKD) — was elected president.
The year 2024 was widely hailed as the year of elections with 73 countries conducting nationwide polls and more than 1.5 billion voters exercising their franchise. While the 2024 Indian general elections may have been the biggest contest on offer, there was another important election in South Asia which has important ramifications both for India and the wider Indo-Pacific. In September 2024, for the first time in Sri Lanka’s history, a third-party candidate — Anura Kumara Dissanayake (known as AKD) — was elected president.
On last week’s episode of Grand Tamasha, a weekly podcast on Indian politics and policy co-produced by HT and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, veteran Sri Lanka watcher Neil DeVotta joined host Milan Vaishnav to talk about the island nation’s dramatic political realignment.
DeVotta is a professor of politics and international affairs at Wake Forest University and the author of an essay in the January 2025 issue of the Journal of Democracy, called “Sri Lanka’s Peaceful Revolution”. On the show, DeVotta noted that while the 56-year-old AKD is not the first president to come from the lower classes, he is the first to reach the position despite coming from a party with roots in violent Marxism. AKD has since apologised for his party’s violent past and has also made attempts to make inroads with Sri Lanka’s minority communities.
“Twenty-five percent of Sri Lanka’s population comprises of minorities, mainly Tamils and Muslims. The vast majority of Tamils and Muslims did not vote for AKD when he ran for president. AKD tried to cultivate those communities, but it didn’t work out as well as he would have liked,” explained DeVotta. “But, to AKD’s credit, he continued to cultivate these communities when parliamentary elections were taking place, which is quite a contrast with the Rajapaksas.”
DeVotta cautioned that AKD faces a catch-22 as he cannot go too far toward minority accommodation without alienating the Sinhalese Buddhist majority. But, he also stressed that AKD’s coalition will refrain from efforts to rouse Buddhist feelings against minorities, actions associated with his nationalist predecessors.
When it comes to Sri Lanka’s global outlook, AKD’s win was portrayed by many as a win for China and a loss for India. But, DeVotta said the reality is far more complicated. AKD’s Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP or People’s Liberation Front) has been a Maoist party with media reports suggesting that China has funded the party’s activities. Historically, it was extremely hostile towards India. But Devotta said that the JVP’s tone has shifted. “AKD visited India last month (in December 2024) and made a promise that the government would not do anything to undermine India’s security interests,” he explained. “They promised a neutral foreign policy, and what they mean is a multi-aligned foreign policy.”
DeVotta stressed that the new government is going to do everything it can to try and attract investment from China and from India. But, unlike previous governments, “They’re going to make sure that the investments actually benefit Sri Lanka, that they contribute to job creation, that they do not lead to unnecessary death, that the loans are for the most part concessionary, that the projects are not ‘white elephants’ like the Rajapaksas ended up overseeing.” In other words, DeVotta explained, it will be a delicate balancing act.